2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ukraine_First_Review_Under_the_Stand173173_71页_3mb

Ukraine: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the first review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Ukraine, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on July 28, 2010, for a 29-month SDR 10.0 billion (729% of quota, US$15.3 billion) program. The review was conducted in November 2010 and concluded with a staff report completed on December 10, 2010, followed by a staff statement on December 22, 2010, and a press release summarizing the Executive Board's discussion.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Recovery and Outlook

• Economic recovery is broadening, shifting from crisis management to supporting adjustment and growth.
• Real GDP growth in 2010 is expected to reach or slightly exceed the program projection of 3.25%.
• Growth is projected to rise to 4.5% in 2011, driven by stronger private consumption and investment, including preparations for the Euro 2012 tournament.
• The output gap remains sizable, and economic activity is not expected to surpass the pre-crisis peak until 2013.

2. Inflation Trends

• Headline inflation is trending downward but remains above regional peers.
• Inflation rose to 10% in September 2010 due to higher food prices, gas tariffs, and excise taxes.
• Core inflation is projected to fall to around 7% by year-end.
• In 2011, administrative price increases will keep headline inflation high, but second-round pressures are expected to be restrained.

3. Access to International Capital Markets

• Ukraine has regained access to international capital markets due to improved fiscal and external positions.
• A US$2 billion Eurobond was issued in late 2010, marking the first since 2007.
• Gross international reserves reached US$33.2 billion by end-November 2010.
• Despite this, risk perceptions remain high, with Ukraine having the lowest sovereign rating in Eastern Europe and spreads persistently above 500 basis points.

4. Financial Sector Conditions

• The financial sector is slowly improving, but banks remain under strain.
• Deposits are returning to banks, surpassing pre-crisis levels in November 2010.
• Funding costs are declining, but the sector remains unprofitable with a return on assets of around -2%.
• Non-performing loans (NPLs) are a major challenge, with legal, tax, and judicial weaknesses hindering loan resolution.
• Credit growth remains weak, with household lending stalled due to perceived risks, though enterprise lending shows signs of revival.

5. Program Implementation

• The program is off to a generally good start, with all end-September performance criteria met.
• The stock of VAT refund arrears is nearly phased out, with a small amount of arrears (0.1% of GDP) allowed for end-December.
• Bank recapitalization bonds and government guarantees are within program ceilings.
• Fiscal consolidation is set to continue in 2011, targeting a combined general government and Naftogaz deficit of 3.5% of GDP.

6. 2011 Budget and Fiscal Adjustments

• The 2011 general government budget targets a 3.1% deficit of GDP.
• Measures to reduce spending include:
  • Freezing real wages and reducing bonuses and top-ups.
  • Curtailing employment and discretionary spending.
  • Limiting pension increases and enacting pension reforms.
• Capital spending is increased to 3% of GDP, to support infrastructure upgrades and Euro 2012 preparations.
• State guarantees are limited to 1.2% of GDP, to control public sector indebtedness.

7. Structural Reforms

• Key structural reforms include:
  • New tax code (Box 3): Broadly revenue-neutral in 2011, but with risks due to implementation challenges.
  • Pension reform (Box 4): Aims to reduce pension spending and deficits, with immediate savings of 0.4% of GDP in 2011.
  • Public sector reform (Box 5): Expected to improve efficiency and reduce government costs over the medium term.
• Energy sector reforms (Box 6): Focus on phasing out Naftogaz's deficit, with a second round of gas tariff hikes planned for 2011.
• Naftogaz's deficit is expected to fall to 0.4% of GDP in 2011, with further reductions planned for 2012.

8. Executive Board Views

• The Executive Board approved the SBA and emphasized the need for fiscal adjustment, energy sector reforms, monetary policy strengthening, and banking sector rehabilitation.
• Fiscal sustainability, revenue base enhancement, and public spending rationalization were key policy focuses.

Summary of Key Documents

• Staff Report: Completed on December 10, 2010, covering economic developments, performance criteria, and policy discussions.
• Staff Statement: Issued on December 22, 2010, updating recent developments.
• Press Release: Summarizing the Executive Board's discussion and approval of the SBA.
• Additional documents:
  • Letter of Intent
  • Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP)
  • Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU)

Key Performance Indicators

Conclusion

The review highlights positive economic recovery, improved fiscal and external positions, and progress in structural reforms. However, challenges remain, including high inflation, weak financial sector performance, and persistent risks in the capital market and public debt sustainability. The program remains on track, with continued fiscal consolidation, energy sector reforms, and monetary policy adjustments as critical components to ensure long-term stability and growth.