2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Iraq_Second_Review_Under_the_Stand_71页_930kb

Summary of the IMF Staff Report on Iraq's Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

The document outlines the second review of Iraq's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) under the International Monetary Fund (IMF), including requests for waiver of applicability, extension of the arrangement, and rephasing of access. The report was prepared by the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department and approved by Alfred Kammer and David Marston on March 4, 2011, following discussions with Iraqi officials in Amman.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) Status

• A two-year SBA of SDR 2,376.8 million (equivalent to 200% of Iraq's quota) was approved by the IMF Executive Board on February 24, 2010.
• A first purchase of SDR 297.1 million (25% of quota) was made in 2010, and a second purchase of SDR 475.36 million (40% of quota) followed the first program review.
• The second review was delayed due to the formation of the new government and the adoption of a 2011 budget consistent with medium-term fiscal sustainability and available financing.

2. Program Objectives

• The SBA aims to provide temporary budget support, ensure macroeconomic stability, and support structural reforms during a period of political transition and ongoing reconstruction.
• The Iraqi economy was severely impacted in 2009 by declining oil prices, leading to large deficits in the external current account and fiscal balance, which are projected to persist in 2011 and 2012.

3. Economic Developments

• Macroeconomic stability was maintained in 2010 despite a challenging environment.
• Inflation remained in low single digits, and the exchange rate was stable.
• The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) kept the policy interest rate at 6%, after lowering it from 7% in early 2010.
• Oil export revenues exceeded projections in 2010, reaching $50 billion, due to higher prices (average $74 per barrel) rather than increased volumes (average 1.85 mbpd, below the target of 2.10 mbpd).
• International reserves increased to just over $50 billion by the end of 2010, exceeding the SBA target.

4. Fiscal Policy

• The 2011 budget aims to accelerate investment in public services and oil infrastructure, while accommodating increased social and security spending.
• The 2011 budget deficit is expected to be ID 10 trillion, which is well below the original forecast of ID 18 trillion.
• The budget is based on conservative assumptions, with oil export prices projected at $76.50 per barrel and volumes at 2.25 mbpd.
• The authorities request a rephasing of remaining SBA disbursements, with most of the financing available in late 2011 if needed.

5. Structural Reforms

• Structural reforms focus on improving public financial management, strengthening oil sector governance, and developing the financial sector.
• Progress has been uneven, largely due to capacity constraints and security issues, as well as poor coordination between government entities during the political transition.
• Key areas of reform include:
  • Establishing a single oil revenue account after the Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) ends.
  • Completing oil sector metering and reconciling physical and financial flows.
  • Restructuring state-owned banks and improving financial services for citizens.
  • Introducing a single treasury account (STA) to streamline financial operations.

6. Staff Appraisal and Recommendations

• The second review was completed, and the IMF staff supports the authorities' request for a disbursement of SDR 297.1 million (25% of quota).
• The authorities request an extension of the SBA to mid-2012 to allow more time for reforms and to demonstrate commitment to sound economic policies.
• The end-2010 performance criteria were mostly met, except for the central government budget deficit and current spending bill, for which data is pending and waivers are requested.
• The IMF staff recommends waivers for the end-2010 fiscal criteria and rephasing of disbursements to match financing needs.

Key Documents Included

• Staff Report (completed on March 4, 2011)
• Press Release on the Executive Board discussion (March 18, 2011)
• Statement by the Executive Director for Iraq
• Letter of Intent
• Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding

Supporting Materials

• Tables and figures provide detailed economic and financial indicators, fiscal accounts, and monetary surveys.
• Boxes summarize medium-term oil sector outlook, including increased proven reserves and projected production growth.
• Attachments include policy documents and technical memoranda.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports the extension and rephasing of the SBA, recognizing the challenges in implementing reforms and the need for additional time. The authorities are committed to maintaining macroeconomic stability and accelerating investment in public services and infrastructure. The review process was delayed due to political transition, but the economic performance has been satisfactory.