2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_First_Review_Under_the_Stand_45页_808kb

Summary of Bosnia and Herzegovina: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion

Core Content

This document outlines the first review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), which was approved by the IMF Board on September 26, 2012, with an access of SDR338.2 million (200% of quota). The SBA was initially funded with SDR50.73 million (30% of quota), and an additional amount would become available after the first review.

The program objectives are centered around:

• Improving national policy coordination
• Maintaining fiscal discipline and advancing public sector reforms
• Safeguarding financial sector stability under the currency board
• Intensifying reforms to improve the business environment and support growth and investment

Main Views and Key Information

Program Status

• Performance criteria for end-September 2012: All but one were met.
• The Federation central government fiscal balance was missed due to advanced payments for agricultural support amid a severe drought.
• The general government fiscal balance was also missed, due to faster-than-anticipated spending by extra-budgetary funds and local governments.
• The authorities requested a waiver for the non-observation of the Federation fiscal balance criterion, citing it as a timing issue.
• Corrective actions included staying within the approved budget, improving cash management, and expenditure controls.

Structural Benchmarks

• All structural benchmarks were met, though some were delayed.
• The Federation completed payments to decommissioned soldiers whose benefits were repealed at the Institutions of BiH level.
• The RS made payments to most eligible beneficiaries.
• The required inter-entity payments to resolve past indirect tax revenue disputes were initiated in early September 2012 and are expected to continue until end-December 2012.

Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• The authorities are on track to meet the end-year overall deficit target of 3% of GDP.
• Revenues through November 2012 were on target, partly due to increased tax collection.
• Expenditure is being tightly controlled, with some under-execution of capital spending.
• Public sector wage bill is expected to decrease by 0.6% of GDP in 2013, due to wage cuts in the RS and freezing employment in the Federation.
• Social and private sector support is to be increased to foster growth and social assistance.

B. Advancing Public Sector Reforms

• Sustainable fiscal consolidation requires structural reforms in public expenditure.
• Privileged pensions (higher than regular old-age pensions) have grown significantly, especially for veterans and demobilized soldiers.
• Reforms are being pursued to:
  • Eliminate new privileged retirement benefits in all entities.
  • Separate contributory and privileged portions of pensions.
  • Reduce the average level of privileged pensions and introduce penalties for early retirement.
  • Harmonize pension levels across similar groups.
• A centralized database of social benefit recipients is to be established in the Federation by end-January 2013.
• The RS is implementing a one-stop-shop for business registration by end-September 2013.
• The Federation is preparing a new Law on Companies to streamline the business registration process.

C. Mitigating Financial Sector Risks

• The banking system remains stable, with profitability and improved capital adequacy.
• Nonperforming loans (NPLs) are at 12.5%, with provisioning at 67%, which is in line with regional averages.
• Legal, tax, and institutional reforms are being considered to improve NPL resolution frameworks.
• Stress tests are being conducted, with a focus on systemically important institutions.
• Cooperation with home supervisors is necessary due to foreign ownership dominance in the banking sector.

D. Encouraging Private Sector Development

• Harmonizing quality standards with EU requirements is critical to avoid adverse effects on exports to Croatia, which is a major market for agricultural products.
• The authorities aim to establish a unified set of rules and procedures for food and animal safety by end-May 2013.
• Efforts to improve the business environment include streamlining registration processes and enhancing access to information.

Program and Data Issues

• The supplementary Letter of Intent and Technical Memorandum of Understanding detail the progress and additional measures for 2012 and 2013.
• BiH's capacity to repay the IMF remains strong, with Fund credit outstanding projected to be slightly above 3% of GDP by the end of the SBA.
• Debt service obligations are expected to peak at 43.25% of total debt service in 2013.
• The authorities are amending the Law on Financing of BiH Institutions to prioritize foreign debt service obligations.

Risks and Outlook

• Downside risks include a worsening euro area crisis, which could impact exports, remittances, and capital inflows.
• Domestic political instability continues to pose significant risks to program implementation.
• Staff expects a mild recession in 2012, followed by a modest recovery in 2013.
• Inflation is expected to remain around 2% in 2013, due to weak demand.

Conclusion

• The program is on track, with most performance and structural benchmarks met.
• The waiver request for the Federation fiscal balance is supported, as the non-observation was due to timing issues.
• The IMF continues to support the authorities in fiscal consolidation, public sector reforms, and financial sector stability.
• The focus remains on improving governance, tax administration, and export readiness for EU accession.