2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ukraine_First_Review_Under_the_Stand_111页_1mb

Ukraine: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the findings and discussions of the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Ukraine, conducted in the context of heightened geopolitical tensions, a deepening economic crisis, and complex political developments. The review includes waivers for nonobservance of performance criteria (PCs), revised program targets, and a request for rephasing of the arrangement. The IMF Staff Statement and Executive Director Statement are also included, along with press releases and supporting documents.

Key Points

1. Economic Context

• Geopolitical tensions have intensified, particularly due to the conflict in the East and the gas price dispute with Gazprom.
• The security situation in Donetsk and Luhansk has worsened, causing significant economic disruption and loss of life.
• The economic outlook has deteriorated, with real GDP declining and unemployment rising.

2. Economic Developments

• Real GDP fell by 1.1% in Q1 2014, with high-frequency indicators showing accelerating output decline in the East.
• Industrial production dropped by 4.7% y-o-y in January-June 2014, construction by 8.9%, and agricultural output by 3.9%.
• Retail trade turnover remained in positive territory in 2014:H1 but showed a decline.
• Current account deficit is now projected at 2.5% of GDP in 2014, lower than expected due to reduced imports and improved exports.

3. Exchange Rate and Inflation

• The hryvnia has depreciated more than expected, reaching UAH 13/US$1 by early August, 40–45% weaker than at the end of 2013.
• Inflation has accelerated, with CPI reaching 12.6% y-o-y in July, and projected to reach 19% by end-2014.
• The monetary policy has been revised to address the weaker balance of payments and exchange rate volatility.

4. Program Performance

• Most PCs were met by end-May, but two end-July PCs are estimated to have been missed, including the combined general government-Naftogaz deficit and net international reserves (NIR).
• All continuous PCs were met, indicating some degree of compliance with the program.
• The original program targets for 2014 and 2015 are out of reach, and adjustments are being considered.

5. Policy Discussions and Reforms

• Compensatory measures were discussed to address the short-term pressures and deviations from initial targets.
• The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will limit reserve declines through market purchases.
• The government will take additional fiscal measures to ensure public finances remain sustainable.
• Naftogaz will improve gas bill collection and revenue generation.
• Reforms to modernize the monetary policy framework, preserve financial stability, and improve governance were emphasized.

6. Risks to the Program

• Major risks include prolonged conflict, escalated geopolitical tensions, and political instability.
• If the conflict continues beyond expectations, reserves and debt servicing margins may be quickly exhausted, requiring new external financing.
• Early parliamentary elections could complicate policymaking and program implementation.
• Fiscal dominance and lack of financial autonomy at the NBU pose governance risks.
• Exchange restrictions and multiple currency practices (MCPs) are inconsistent with IMF Article VIII and may affect program compliance.

7. Staff Appraisal and Support

• The IMF staff supports the request for completion of the first review and waivers for nonobservance of performance criteria.
• A purchase of SDR 0.914 billion is approved, with SDR 0.650 billion allocated to finance the budget deficit.

8. Program Financing and Modality

• The revised baseline assumes reduced conflict intensity and improved economic conditions.
• The NBU is working on a plan to gradually remove FX deposit restrictions, consistent with financial stability.
• The program financing is rephased to accommodate current economic conditions.

Main Views and Key Information

Main Views

• The economic crisis in Ukraine is deepening due to geopolitical tensions and conflict-related disruptions.
• The IMF program has not fully met all targets, but most continuous performance criteria have been fulfilled.
• Compensatory measures are necessary to adjust the program and maintain macroeconomic stability.
• Exchange rate flexibility is critical for restoring competitiveness and absorbing shocks.
• Governance reforms at the NBU are essential to enhance financial autonomy and improve oversight.

Key Information

• GDP decline in the East is 15–20% for 2014, while the rest of Ukraine faces a mid-single-digit decline.
• Inflation is projected to reach 19% by end-2014, down from 16.2% at the time of the program request.
• The current account deficit is now 2.5% of GDP, lower than expected due to reduced imports.
• IMF Staff recommends revising the fiscal deficit, NIR path, and net domestic asset (NDA) trajectory.
• NBU's balance sheet is under strain due to fiscal dominance and liquidity support to commercial banks.
• Exchange restrictions and MCPs are inconsistent with Article VIII, but no implications on continuous PCs compliance.

Supporting Documents

• Staff Report and Statement
• Press Release and Executive Director Statement
• Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP)
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU)
• Annex: Public Debt Sustainability Analysis
• Appendix: Letter of Intent
• Attachments: MEFP and TMU

Conclusion

The IMF review highlights the challenges Ukraine faces due to geopolitical instability and economic pressures, but also the commitment of the authorities to adjust policies and maintain program objectives. The staff supports the waivers and rephasing of the SBA, emphasizing the need for continued reforms and policy discipline to ensure long-term economic stability.