2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Jamaica_Third_Review_Under_the_Stand_90页_1mb

Summary of Jamaica's Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the findings of the IMF's third review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Jamaica, which was completed on December 28, 2010. It includes the Staff Report, Informational Annex, Staff Supplement, and the Press Release on the Executive Board discussion. The SBA, approved in February 2010, has a total amount of 300 percent of quota (SDR 820.5 million), with SDR 509.9 million disbursed to date. The review focused on fiscal consolidation, public debt restructuring, and financial sector reform.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Developments and Outlook

• Real GDP declined by 0.5 percent in 2010Q3, primarily due to lower growth in major trading partners and damage from Tropical Storm Nicole (1.7% of GDP).
• Positive indicators include a 3% increase in tourist arrivals and 21,000 net jobs created.
• Inflation rose to 11.4% in November 2010, driven by food price spikes, while core inflation eased to 7.6%.
• Financial market conditions remained favorable, with the 90-day Treasury bill rate at 7.4% and the Bank of Jamaica's policy rate at 7.5%. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) declined slightly, and the financial system showed resilience.

Program Performance

• All quantitative performance criteria for end-September 2010 were met.
• The central government primary surplus was 1.7% of GDP, and the overall deficit was 3.7% of GDP, both within program projections.
• NIR remained stable at US$1.9–2 billion.
• A structural benchmark related to hiring a technical advisor and program director for debt management was not met but is expected to be completed by January 2011.

Policy Discussions

• The authorities acknowledged spending overruns and adopted corrective measures to stay on track with fiscal targets.
• Key unbudgeted spending included the purchase of 100 buses, damages from Nicole, and CAP losses. These were offset by measures such as postponing capital projects, reducing recurrent spending, and introducing differentiated alcohol tax rates.
• The Clarendon Alumina Production (CAP) losses were estimated at $185 million since 2007, with an additional $175 million expected through 2012. The government has been working on divesting CAP, and the proceeds will be used for debt repayment.

Fiscal Adjustments

• The government requested a relaxation of fiscal targets by 0.2% of GDP to accommodate storm-related infrastructure reconstruction.
• The IMF supported this request, recognizing the limited flexibility in this area and the need for a contingency buffer to cover potential losses from natural disasters.

Structural Reforms

• Public sector rationalization, tax policy, and debt management reforms are key components of the program.
• The authorities have made progress in implementing these reforms, though delays have occurred in some areas.
• The technical work on cost and savings estimates for reforms needs to be completed rapidly to support the FY2011/12 budget planning.

Key Policies and Reforms

Fiscal Policy

• The authorities have implemented measures to address unbudgeted spending, including:
  • Postponing capital projects.
  • Reducing recurrent spending.
  • Adjusting tax policies (e.g., differentiated alcohol tax rates).
  • Increasing transfers from public entities.
• A wage freeze has been extended to FY2011/12, with the goal of reducing the wage bill to 9.5% of GDP by FY2013/14.
• One-off payments to public sector workers and teachers were made, amounting to 0.2% of GDP.

Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

• The financial system showed resilience despite challenges from the Jamaica Debt Exchange (JDX) and the economic downturn.
• Financial sector reforms are progressing, with improved prudential indicators and a decline in NPLs.
• The Financial System Support Fund (FSSF) is to be phased out, with its resources redirected to general purpose international reserves.

Long-Term Growth Policies

• Efforts are being made to reinvigorate structural reforms to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and growth.
• The IMF encourages the government to explore market-based options for reducing the cost and improving the profile of external debt, especially with the upcoming rollover of a US$400 million Eurobond.

Conclusion

The third review under the SBA was completed successfully, with the authorities meeting most performance criteria. Despite some spending pressures and delays in key reforms, the government has taken corrective actions to keep the fiscal program on track. The IMF supports the ongoing reforms and urges continued progress in areas such as public sector rationalization, tax policy, and debt management. The document highlights the importance of structural reforms for long-term economic stability and growth.