20151126-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_790kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Market Summary
Core Content
This summary provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 25 November 2015, highlighting price movements, key news, and analyst ratings for various companies across Asia, India, Japan, and other regions.
Oil & Gas Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Rose by 0.1% to USD46.17/bbl.
- WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 0.4% to USD43.04/bbl.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Up 0.9% to USD41.07/barrel.
- China Daqing Spot: Up 0.5% to USD38.74/barrel.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Down 1.1% to USD2.30/MMBtu.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Up 0.5% to USD7.42/MMBtu.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Increased by 1.0% to USD54.94/barrel.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Up 0.0% to USD57.60/gallon.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Up 0.7% to USD230.29/mt.
- Gold: Down 0.4% to USD1,071.12/Oz.
- USD-CNY: No change at 6.39.
- DJI: Up 0.0% to 17,813.39.
- S&P 500: Down 0.0% to 2,088.87.
Key News Headlines
- PetroChina Plans $2.4 Billion Sale in Profit Drive Amid Reforms: PetroChina plans to sell a 50% stake in Trans-Asia Gas Pipeline Co. for 15.5 billion yuan (approximately $2.4 billion) to meet year-end profit targets and reform state-owned enterprises. The company also announced a new CFO and plans to inject new assets into its gas subsidiary Kunlun Energy.
- Oil steadies after early losses: Crude futures erased early losses to settle steady after a smaller-than-expected supply build in the US and a drop in the number of active US rigs. Traders covered short positions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
- US rig count down by 13: The number of US rigs drilling for oil and gas fell to 744, a significant decrease from the previous year. Rigs targeting oil dropped by 9 to 555, and gas-directed rigs fell by 4 to 189.
- NEW diesel cargoes revert to discounts: Northwest European diesel faced discounts due to weak demand and ample supply. The CIF NWE cargo differential to ICE low sulfur gasoil futures fell to minus 25 cents/mt.
- S Korea's oil stocks fall in October: South Korea's private oil stocks fell by 4.9% year on year to 56.38 million barrels in October due to strong domestic demand.
- Philippines Eyeing Long Term LNG Deal with Qatar: The Philippines aims to sign a long-term LNG deal with Qatar to meet its domestic gas demand and is expected to exhaust its LNG resources by 2024.
Analyst Ratings and Target Prices
| Company | Rating | Price (24-Nov) | Target Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Icon Offshore | HOLD | MYR1.00 | MYR0.37 | Upgrade to HOLD with a higher TP due to improved risk-reward |
| Perisai Petroleum | HOLD | MYR0.40 | MYR0.29 | Upgrade to HOLD with a higher TP due to operations turning around |
| Bumi Armada | BUY | MYR1.05 | MYR1.20 | Reiterate BUY with unchanged TP based on SOP |
| Yinson Holdings | BUY | MYR4.35 | MYR4.35 | Reiterate BUY with unchanged TP, remains a growth stock |
Asia Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Rating | Price (24-Nov) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE (2015E) | P/BV (2015E) | Yield (2015E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | Sell | MYR5.63 | MYR4.80 | 243.3 | 82.5 | 24.8 | 43.3 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Sinopec - H | Buy | MYR5.07 | MYR6.00 | 94.1 | 69.9 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 3.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | Buy | MYR8.55 | MYR11.34 | 49.3 | 92.5 | 15.9 | 19.1 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 4.6 |
| New Ocean Energy | Buy | MYR3.29 | MYR7.70 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
Asian Refiners Average
| Company | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE (2015E) | P/BV (2015E) | Yield (2015E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian Refiners average | 13.4 | 15.5 | -20.5 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
Key Insights
- PetroChina is actively selling its stake in a pipeline company to meet profit targets and is part of a broader reform initiative.
- US rig count has been declining, reflecting reduced drilling activity and a shift in market dynamics.
- Diesel demand in Northwest Europe is weak, leading to discounts despite increased supply.
- South Korea is experiencing a drop in oil product stocks due to robust domestic demand.
- Philippines is seeking long-term LNG deals with Qatar to secure energy supplies.
- Icon Offshore and Perisai Petroleum have been upgraded to HOLD, with improved risk-reward ratios.
- Bumi Armada and Yinson Holdings are rated as BUY, with positive outlooks on execution and growth potential.
Analyst Contact Information
-
Howard Wong - HK/CHINA
(852) 22680648
howardwong@kimeng.com.hk -
Jigar Shah - INDIA
(91) 2266232632
jigar@maybank-ke.co.in -
Pandu Anugrah - INDONESIA
(62) 21 2557 1137
pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id -
Liaw Thong Jung - MALAYSIA
(603) 22978688
tjiaw@maybank-ib.com -
Michael Bengson - PHILIPPINES
(63) 28498840
micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com -
Yeah Chee Keong - SINGAPORE
(65) 6231 5842
yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg -
Sutthichai Kumworachai - THAILAND
(66) 2658 6300 x 1400
sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th -
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen - VIETNAM
(84) 844555888×8082
chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn -
Truong Quang Binh - VIETNAM
(84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087
binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
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