2025年全球能源评价_43页_830kb

Global Energy Review 2025 Summary

Core Content

The Global Energy Review 2025, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), provides a comprehensive analysis of energy trends in 2024 across all fuels, technologies, regions, and major countries. It highlights the interplay between economic growth, climate factors, and the adoption of clean energy technologies in shaping global energy demand and emissions.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Energy Demand Trends

• Global energy demand grew by 2.2% in 2024, faster than the average rate over the past decade.
• Electricity demand surged by 4.3%, outpacing both overall energy demand and GDP growth.
• The power sector accounted for three-fifths of the total increase in global energy demand, driven by:
  • Cooling needs due to record-breaking temperatures.
  • Industrial growth and electrification of transport.
  • Expansion of data centres and AI.
• Renewables accounted for the largest share of energy supply growth (38%), followed by natural gas (28%), coal (15%), oil (11%), and nuclear (8%).

Regional and Sectoral Demand Growth

• Emerging and developing economies accounted for over 80% of global energy demand growth, with China contributing the largest absolute increase.
• Advanced economies also saw a return to growth, with the European Union resuming growth for the first time since 2017 (excluding the post-Covid rebound in 2021).
• China's energy demand growth slowed to under 3% in 2024, down from nearly 4% in 2023, but still the largest in absolute terms.
• India's energy demand growth exceeded that of all advanced economies combined.

Fuel-Specific Demand

• Oil demand growth slowed to 0.8% in 2024, the lowest since 2019, and oil's share of total energy demand fell below 30% for the first time.
  • China's oil demand growth decelerated significantly, from 8.7% in 2023 to 0.8% in 2024.
  • Non-feedstock uses of oil remained stable compared to 2019, despite a 14% increase in global GDP.
• Natural gas demand grew by 2.7%, reaching a new all-time high, driven by:
  • Industrial and power generation use.
  • Record temperatures contributing to 20% of the increase in gas demand.
  • China, India, and the US led the growth, with China seeing the highest absolute increase.
• Coal demand increased by 1%, reaching an all-time high, but growth slowed compared to 2023.
  • China and India accounted for the majority of coal demand growth, with China consuming nearly 40% more coal than the rest of the world combined.

Electricity Generation and Emissions

• Electricity demand growth was the largest ever recorded, surpassing Japan’s annual consumption.
• 80% of the growth in electricity generation came from renewables and nuclear, with renewables contributing 32% of total generation.
• Solar PV and wind saw record growth in generation, adding 670 TWh in 2024.
• Nuclear power added over 7 GW of capacity, marking the fifth-highest level in the past 30 years.
• CO₂ emissions from the energy sector reached a new record in 2024, but growth slowed to 0.8%, down from 1.2% in 2023.
  • Record temperatures contributed to about half of the CO₂ increase.
  • Clean energy technologies (solar, wind, EVs, heat pumps) prevented 2.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually.
• Energy intensity improvements slowed to 1% in 2024, the lowest since 2010.
  • Advanced economies saw slower progress due to higher energy prices and economic conditions.
  • China and India continued to see faster improvements, though still below pre-pandemic levels.

Economic and Climate Context

• Global GDP growth was 3.2% in 2024, close to its pre-pandemic average.
• Energy intensity improved by 1%, but at a slower pace than in previous years.
• CO₂ intensity per unit of economic activity improved by 2.1%, driven by better energy efficiency and cleaner energy sources.
• Cooling degree days were 6% higher in 2024 than in 2023, and 20% higher than the long-term average.
• Extreme weather played a significant role in energy demand and emissions growth, with cooling needs and increased use of fossil fuels in power generation being major contributors.

Summary of Key Findings

• Global energy demand increased by 2.2% in 2024, with electricity leading the growth.
• Renewables were the main driver of energy supply growth, contributing 38% of the increase.
• Natural gas demand rose 2.7%, with China and India as key growth areas.
• Oil demand growth slowed to 0.8%, with non-feedstock uses stable at 2019 levels.
• Coal demand increased slightly, but growth slowed due to reduced industrial activity and increased use of alternatives.
• CO₂ emissions reached a new record, but growth decoupled from economic expansion.
• Climate factors, particularly high temperatures, played a significant role in driving energy demand and emissions.
• Energy intensity improvements slowed, but clean energy technologies continued to mitigate emissions growth.

Conclusion

The 2024 energy landscape was marked by accelerated electricity demand, slower fossil fuel growth, and a shift towards cleaner energy sources. While CO₂ emissions increased, the pace of growth was slower than previous years, thanks to the rapid deployment of renewables and clean technologies. The impact of climate change, especially extreme temperatures, was a key factor in energy demand increases, underscoring the need for resilient and sustainable energy systems.