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APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook - 9th Edition Summary

Core Content

The 9th Edition of the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook is a comprehensive report analyzing the future energy landscape of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region. It is divided into two volumes: Volume 1 provides an overview of the APEC region, while Volume 2 presents detailed outlooks for each of the 21 APEC economies.

The report highlights the energy trilemma—balancing energy security, affordability, and sustainability—and presents two main scenarios:

• Reference Scenario (REF): Based on historical trends and assumptions about the continuation of these trends in each APEC economy, acknowledging technical constraints.
• Target Scenario (TGT): Explores a hypothetical pathway where each economy achieves energy-related policy targets, regardless of cost-effectiveness.

Main Viewpoints

1. Energy Demand and Supply Trends

• APEC accounts for 60% of global energy consumption and production, making it a key player in global energy dynamics.
• The report identifies four critical factors influencing future energy systems: CO₂ emissions, energy import dependence, grid reliability, and power and hydrogen sector costs.
• These factors are interrelated, and progress in one often affects outcomes in others, necessitating a multifaceted and integrated analysis.

2. Energy Demand by Sector

• The Outlook provides detailed projections for agriculture, buildings, industry, and transport.
• Buildings and industry are expected to see the most significant increases in energy demand, with growth rates of 33% and 14%, respectively, by 2060 under REF.
• Under TGT, transport demand is projected to decline by 40%, while buildings demand increases by 13%.

3. Power Sector Analysis

• The power sector is expected to see a 72% increase in generation under REF and 96% under TGT by 2060.
• The share of renewables in power generation is projected to rise from 26% in 2022 to 55% under REF and 64% under TGT.
• Nuclear power and hydrogen are highlighted as important components in the transition to low-carbon systems.

4. Energy Supply Trends

• Coal use is expected to decline significantly, with a 56% reduction under REF and 74% under TGT.
• Petroleum liquids are projected to decrease by 7% under REF and 54% under TGT.
• Natural gas is expected to rise by 58% under REF and only 5% under TGT, due to a shift toward renewables and hydrogen in TGT.
• Low-carbon and waste energy is expected to grow by 165% under REF and 320% under TGT.

5. CO₂ Emissions

• Under REF, CO₂ emissions are projected to decline by 22% from 20,200 million tonnes in 2022 to 15,725 million tonnes in 2060.
• Under TGT, emissions are expected to fall by 67%, reaching 6,699 million tonnes in 2060.
• The Kaya Identity analysis shows that improvements in energy and emissions intensities will more than offset emissions increases due to GDP growth.

6. Energy Import Dependence

• APEC importing economies face varying degrees of import dependency.
• Oil import share is projected to decrease to 70% in TGT by 2060, while in REF it could rise above 80%.
• Natural gas becomes a major energy security risk in REF, while in TGT the risk remains stable.
• Hydrogen-based fuels introduce a long-term vulnerability, with dependency ratios exceeding 85% in both scenarios.

7. Grid Reliability

• Thermal plant capacity factors decline as variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind increases.
• Thermal plants still play a crucial role in grid stability, especially during periods of low VRE output.
• The per unit generation cost increases as thermal capacity factors decline.

8. Cost Analysis

• The report highlights the cost implications of energy transition in the power and hydrogen sectors.
• Costs are considered as a proxy for affordability, and the TGT scenario involves higher investment in low-carbon technologies, which may affect overall economic costs.

9. APEC Energy Goals

• APEC aims to reduce energy intensity of total final energy consumption by 50% by 2060 (from 2.8 to 1.4 PJ/GDP).
• The goal is also to double the share of modern renewables in the energy mix and triple global renewable energy capacity.

Key Information

• The base year for the Outlook is 2022, with the exception of Russia, which uses 2021.
• Projections extend to 2060, with the REF and TGT scenarios providing contrasting views on energy development.
• The report includes demographic and macroeconomic assumptions, such as population and GDP growth, which are used to model future energy demand.
• Population is expected to decline from 2.97 billion in 2022 to 2.82 billion in 2060.
• Real GDP is projected to increase from USD 75.4 trillion to USD 177.4 trillion by 2060, with an average annual growth rate of 2.3%.
• Income per capita is expected to nearly double from USD 33,000 in 2022 to USD 63,000 in 2060.

Contributors and Collaboration

• The report was developed over three years with the collaboration of the APERC research team and expert contributions from 21 APEC economies.
• Key contributors include:
  • Volume 1 Authors: Yasmin Fouladi, Glen Sweetnam, Alexander Izhbuldin, Daniel Burlutsky, etc.
  • Volume 2 Authors: Each APEC economy has its own lead authors.
  • External Experts: Include individuals and institutions from various countries and organizations, such as the International Energy Agency, Carbon Engineering, and UL Solutions.
  • APERC Advisory Board Members: Represent a range of energy and policy experts from across APEC and beyond.

Disclaimer

• Volume 1 is based on modelling assumptions developed before January 2025.
• U.S. policy changes introduced after January 2025 are not reflected in Volume 1 but are included in Volume 2's U.S. chapter in the Target Scenario.

Conclusion

This edition of the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook provides a detailed and forward-looking analysis of the region's energy future, emphasizing the need for policy coordination, technological innovation, and sustainable development. It serves as a valuable reference for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders in the APEC region, offering insights into the challenges and opportunities in achieving a low-carbon, secure, and affordable energy system.