从增长到转型_APEC能源系统的2060远景_144页_9mb

APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (9th Edition) Summary

Core Content Overview

The APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, 9th Edition is a comprehensive analysis of energy trends and projections for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region. It is divided into two volumes, with Volume 1 focusing on aggregate trends and Volume 2 providing detailed outlooks for each of the 21 APEC economies. The report highlights the challenges and opportunities in the energy sector, emphasizing the need for balanced energy policy that addresses energy security, sustainability, and affordability.

Main Scenarios

• Reference Scenario (REF): Based on historical trends and assumptions about their continuation, acknowledging technical constraints.
• Target Scenario (TGT): A hypothetical pathway where each economy achieves energy-related policy targets, regardless of cost-effectiveness.

Key Takeaways

1. Emissions

• APEC's net CO₂ emissions are projected to decline from 20,200 million tonnes in 2022 to:
  • 15,725 million tonnes by 2060 in the REF Scenario (a 22% reduction).
  • 6,699 million tonnes by 2060 in the TGT Scenario (a 67% reduction).
• Emissions reductions are primarily driven by:
  • Increased use of low-carbon energy sources (wind, solar, nuclear, natural gas).
  • Electrification in the transport sector.
• Kaya Identity analysis shows that improvements in energy and emissions intensities offset emissions growth due to per capita GDP increases.
• CCS plays a larger role in the TGT Scenario, reducing emissions by 800 million tonnes by 2060.

2. Energy Import Dependence

• APEC importing economies show varying levels of dependency on fuels such as coal, petroleum liquids, natural gas, hydrogen-based fuels, and liquid biofuels.
• Coal imports remain stable, with little change in import share.
• Petroleum liquids start at high levels, with import share expected to decline to ~70% in TGT by 2060, but rise above 80% in REF.
• Natural gas becomes the largest energy security risk in REF due to rising imports and dependency ratios.
• Hydrogen-based fuels introduce a new vulnerability, with dependency ratios exceeding 85% in both scenarios.
• Liquid biofuels imports increase sharply by 2040, with dependency ratios between 40% and 66%.

3. Grid Reliability

• Thermal plant capacity factors decline as variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind increases.
• Thermal plants are still essential for grid stability, providing backup capacity, frequency regulation, and other reliability services.
• Per unit generation costs increase as thermal plant capacity factors decline.
• High VRE shares lead to greater variability in generation demand from dispatchable sources, increasing operational and economic stress on thermal generators.
• Grid and market structures struggle to adapt to high-VRE systems, often failing to incentivize flexibility.

4. Costs

• The report examines the costs of power and hydrogen sectors in both REF and TGT scenarios.
• The TGT Scenario assumes more aggressive policy implementation, which could lead to higher investment but potentially lower long-term costs.

Energy Demand Trends

• Agriculture & Fisheries: Expected to increase by 13% (REF) and decrease by 9% (TGT) by 2060.
• Buildings: Demand is projected to rise by 33% in REF and 13% in TGT.
• Industry: Demand increases by 14% in REF and 5% in TGT.
• Transport: Demand slightly decreases in REF (0%) and significantly drops in TGT (40%).
• Modern Renewables: Share of total final energy consumption (TFEC) is expected to rise from 11% to 28% in REF and 46% in TGT.
• Energy Intensity: Declines by 50% in REF and 61% in TGT.

Energy Supply Trends

• Coal: Supply decreases by 56% in REF and 74% in TGT.
• Natural Gas: Increases by 58% in REF and 5% in TGT.
• Petroleum Liquids: Decreases by 7% in REF and 54% in TGT.
• Low-Carbon & Waste Energy: Supply increases by 165% in REF and 320% in TGT.
• CO₂ Intensity: Drops by 33% in REF and 65% in TGT.
• Net CO₂ Emissions: Falls by 22% in REF and 67% in TGT.

Demographic and Macroeconomic Assumptions

• Population is projected to decline from 2.97 billion in 2022 to 2.82 billion in 2060.
• Real GDP is expected to rise from USD 75.4 trillion to USD 177.4 trillion by 2060, averaging 2.3% annual growth.
• Income per capita nearly doubles, from USD 33,000 to USD 63,000.
• China and Southeast Asia lead in per capita income growth, with CAGR over 3%.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of integrated energy policy that balances security, sustainability, and affordability. It highlights the transformative role of renewables, CCS, and electrification, while also identifying key vulnerabilities in energy import dependence and challenges to grid reliability. The TGT Scenario presents a more ambitious and sustainable pathway, although it requires significant policy and investment commitments.

This edition reflects three years of rigorous analysis and collaboration, with input from numerous experts and stakeholders across the APEC region.