> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (9th Edition) Summary ## Core Content Overview The **APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, 9th Edition** is a comprehensive analysis of energy trends and projections for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region. It is divided into two volumes, with **Volume 1** focusing on aggregate trends and **Volume 2** providing detailed outlooks for each of the 21 APEC economies. The report highlights the challenges and opportunities in the energy sector, emphasizing the need for balanced energy policy that addresses **energy security, sustainability, and affordability**. ## Main Scenarios - **Reference Scenario (REF)**: Based on historical trends and assumptions about their continuation, acknowledging technical constraints. - **Target Scenario (TGT)**: A hypothetical pathway where each economy achieves energy-related policy targets, regardless of cost-effectiveness. ## Key Takeaways ### 1. **Emissions** - APEC's net **CO₂ emissions** are projected to decline from 20,200 million tonnes in 2022 to: - **15,725 million tonnes** by 2060 in the REF Scenario (a 22% reduction). - **6,699 million tonnes** by 2060 in the TGT Scenario (a 67% reduction). - Emissions reductions are primarily driven by: - Increased use of low-carbon energy sources (wind, solar, nuclear, natural gas). - Electrification in the transport sector. - **Kaya Identity** analysis shows that improvements in energy and emissions intensities offset emissions growth due to per capita GDP increases. - **CCS** plays a larger role in the TGT Scenario, reducing emissions by 800 million tonnes by 2060. ### 2. **Energy Import Dependence** - APEC importing economies show varying levels of dependency on fuels such as coal, petroleum liquids, natural gas, hydrogen-based fuels, and liquid biofuels. - **Coal imports** remain stable, with little change in import share. - **Petroleum liquids** start at high levels, with import share expected to decline to ~70% in TGT by 2060, but rise above 80% in REF. - **Natural gas** becomes the largest energy security risk in REF due to rising imports and dependency ratios. - **Hydrogen-based fuels** introduce a new vulnerability, with dependency ratios exceeding 85% in both scenarios. - **Liquid biofuels** imports increase sharply by 2040, with dependency ratios between 40% and 66%. ### 3. **Grid Reliability** - **Thermal plant capacity factors** decline as variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind increases. - Thermal plants are still essential for **grid stability**, providing backup capacity, frequency regulation, and other reliability services. - **Per unit generation costs** increase as thermal plant capacity factors decline. - High VRE shares lead to **greater variability** in generation demand from dispatchable sources, increasing operational and economic stress on thermal generators. - **Grid and market structures** struggle to adapt to high-VRE systems, often failing to incentivize flexibility. ### 4. **Costs** - The report examines the **costs of power and hydrogen sectors** in both REF and TGT scenarios. - The TGT Scenario assumes more aggressive policy implementation, which could lead to higher investment but potentially lower long-term costs. ## Energy Demand Trends - **Agriculture & Fisheries**: Expected to increase by 13% (REF) and decrease by 9% (TGT) by 2060. - **Buildings**: Demand is projected to rise by 33% in REF and 13% in TGT. - **Industry**: Demand increases by 14% in REF and 5% in TGT. - **Transport**: Demand slightly decreases in REF (0%) and significantly drops in TGT (40%). - **Modern Renewables**: Share of total final energy consumption (TFEC) is expected to rise from 11% to 28% in REF and 46% in TGT. - **Energy Intensity**: Declines by 50% in REF and 61% in TGT. ## Energy Supply Trends - **Coal**: Supply decreases by 56% in REF and 74% in TGT. - **Natural Gas**: Increases by 58% in REF and 5% in TGT. - **Petroleum Liquids**: Decreases by 7% in REF and 54% in TGT. - **Low-Carbon & Waste Energy**: Supply increases by 165% in REF and 320% in TGT. - **CO₂ Intensity**: Drops by 33% in REF and 65% in TGT. - **Net CO₂ Emissions**: Falls by 22% in REF and 67% in TGT. ## Demographic and Macroeconomic Assumptions - **Population** is projected to decline from 2.97 billion in 2022 to 2.82 billion in 2060. - **Real GDP** is expected to rise from USD 75.4 trillion to USD 177.4 trillion by 2060, averaging 2.3% annual growth. - **Income per capita** nearly doubles, from USD 33,000 to USD 63,000. - **China** and **Southeast Asia** lead in per capita income growth, with CAGR over 3%. ## Conclusion The report underscores the importance of **integrated energy policy** that balances **security, sustainability, and affordability**. It highlights the transformative role of **renewables**, **CCS**, and **electrification**, while also identifying **key vulnerabilities** in energy import dependence and **challenges to grid reliability**. The **TGT Scenario** presents a more ambitious and sustainable pathway, although it requires significant policy and investment commitments. This edition reflects three years of **rigorous analysis and collaboration**, with input from numerous experts and stakeholders across the APEC region.