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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report outlines the U.S. sugar and sweeteners market outlook for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 fiscal years, focusing on production, supply, demand, and trade policies. It highlights the impact of increased raw sugar TRQ and Mexico Export Limit on import projections, as well as the implications for domestic supply and consumption.

Main Points

2017/18 Production Outlook

• Total domestic production is forecasted at 8.970 million STRV, an increase of 232,000 STRV from the July projection.
• Cane sugar production is expected to reach 3.902 million STRV, up by 152,000 STRV.
  • Florida is projected to produce 2.126 million STRV, a 126,000 STRV increase.
  • Louisiana is forecasted to produce 1.626 million STRV, up by 26,000 STRV.
• Beet sugar production is estimated at 5.068 million STRV, an increase of 80,000 STRV.
  • Record yields in the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, North Dakota) and Far West (California, Oregon) support this increase.
• Total supply for 2017/18 is forecasted at 14.276 million STRV, a 540,000 STRV increase from the July projection.
  • This is due to higher beginning stocks, increased production, and more imports.

2017/18 Import Projections

• Total imports are expected to be 3.631 million STRV, an increase of 73,000 STRV from the previous month.
• Quota program imports are projected at 1.707 million STRV, up by 158,000 STRV.
• Mexico imports are forecasted at 1.714 million STRV, a 110,000 STRV decrease from the July projection.
  • This is due to constrained available supplies and reduced Export Limit.
• Non-program imports are estimated at 1.724 million STRV.

Domestic Deliveries

• Domestic deliveries for 2017/18 are projected at 12.578 million STRV, unchanged from the previous month.
• Deliveries for food and beverage use are estimated at 12.423 million STRV.
• Ending stocks are forecasted at 1.673 million STRV, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.3%, up from 9.0%.

2016/17 Market Overview

• Total domestic production is estimated at 8.848 million STRV, a 12,000 STRV increase from the July estimate.
• Cane sugar production is estimated at 3.850 million STRV, up by 2,000 STRV.
  • Texas increased production by 140,000 STRV.
• Beet sugar production is forecasted at 4.998 million STRV, up by 10,000 STRV.
• Total imports are estimated at 3.353 million STRV, an increase of 222,000 STRV.
• Total supply for 2016/17 is estimated at 14.255 million STRV.
• Ending stocks are projected at 1.675 million STRV, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.3%, up from 11.5%.

Key Information

• Policy Impact: The USDA's adjustment to the 2016/17 raw sugar TRQ and the raised Export Limit for Mexico significantly influenced import levels.
• Supply and Demand Dynamics:
  • Increased production and imports led to higher supply for 2017/18.
  • The stocks-to-use ratio increased for both 2016/17 and 2017/18 due to the higher supply and stable use.
• Regional Performance:
  • Beet sugar production in the Upper Midwest and Far West is expected to be record levels.
  • Cane sugar production in Florida and Louisiana saw significant increases due to record yields.
• Caloric Sweetener Trends:
  • Total caloric sweetener deliveries in 2016 were 20.702 million STRV, a marginal decrease from 2015.
  • Per capita deliveries declined to 128.1 pounds, a 0.7% decrease from the previous year.
  • Refined sugar accounted for 54.4% of total caloric sweetener deliveries in 2016, up from 43.8% in 1999.
  • Corn sweeteners, including HFCS, saw a decline in both volume and market share, from 55.2% in 1999 to 44.1% in 2016.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The report indicates a positive outlook for U.S. sugar production and supply in the 2017/18 fiscal year, driven by strong crop yields and policy adjustments. These changes are expected to increase ending stocks and stabilize the stocks-to-use ratio. However, the market for caloric sweeteners continues to shift, with refined sugar gaining market share and corn sweeteners declining. The role of imports, particularly from Mexico and under the TRQ, remains critical in balancing supply and demand.