20180816-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2018.08.16_20页_512kb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the sugar and sweeteners market outlook for the U.S. and Mexico for the 2017/18 and 2018/19 crop years, based on data from the August 2018 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. It outlines changes in production, supply, demand, and trade dynamics, including the impact of the U.S. Re-export Program on domestic delivery forecasts.

Key Highlights

2018/19 U.S. Sugar Outlook

• Total Sugar Supplies: Projected to reach 14.751 million short tons, raw value (STRV), a 404,000-STRV increase from the previous month.
• Domestic Production: Expected to be 9.088 million STRV, an increase of 312,000 STRV from the July estimate, but still a 1.9-percent decrease from the 2017/18 estimate.
• Beet Sugar Production: Forecast to be 5.107 million STRV, up 71,000 STRV from the previous month, due to higher sugarbeet production and improved slicing efficiency.
• Cane Sugar Production: Increased by 241,000 STRV to 3.981 million STRV, driven by higher production forecasts in Florida and Louisiana.
• Ending Stocks: Projected to rise to 2.260 million STRV, resulting in a 18.1-percent stocks-to-use ratio.
• Imports: Estimated at 3.560 million STRV for 2018/19, with a 99,000-STRV shortfall in the WTO raw sugar TRQ and increased imports from Mexico at 1.655 million STRV.
• Domestic Deliveries: Lower than the previous year for both 2017/18 and 2018/19, with 2017/18 deliveries estimated at 12.100 million STRV and 2018/19 at 12.250 million STRV. The decline is attributed to a slow pace of deliveries and the impact of hurricane damage on the 2017/18 crop.

2017/18 U.S. Sugar Outlook

• Total Sugar Supplies: Estimated at 14.528 million STRV.
• Domestic Deliveries: Reduced by 135,000 STRV to 12.100 million STRV due to continued slow deliveries.
• Ending Stocks: Raised to 2.103 million STRV, resulting in a 16.9-percent stocks-to-use ratio.
• Imports: Estimated at 3.393 million STRV, with a 9,000-STRV decrease from the July estimate. Imports under the TRQ and Specialty Sugar TRQ are reduced, and the WTO raw sugar TRQ shortfall is increased by 28,000 STRV.
• Mexico Sugar Imports: Unchanged at 1.269 million STRV, in line with the U.S. Department of Commerce's Export Limit.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

• Sugar Production: Remains unchanged at 6.009 million metric tons (MT) for 2017/18 and projected to increase slightly to 6.025 million MT for 2018/19.
• Total Supply: Estimated at 7.201 million MT for 2017/18 and projected to be 7.386 million MT for 2018/19.
• Imports: Unchanged at 190,000 MT for 2017/18 and projected at 115,000 MT for 2018/19.
• Exports: Estimated at 1.288 million MT for 2017/18 and projected at 1.427 million MT for 2018/19, with most going to the U.S. and Puerto Rico.
• Ending Stocks: Estimated at 1.246 million MT for 2017/18, with a 28.7-percent stocks-to-consumption ratio, and projected at 1.008 million MT for 2018/19, with a 22.1-percent stocks-to-use ratio.

U.S. Re-export Program

• The program allows raw sugar refineries, sugar-containing product manufacturers, and polyhydric alcohol manufacturers to access world sugar prices.
• License Types:
  • Licensed Refiners can import raw sugar and export refined sugar or transfer sugar to other licensees.
  • Licensed Sugar-Containing Product (SCP) manufacturers can receive transfers and export products containing sugar.
  • Licensed Poly manufacturers can receive transfers and use sugar to produce polyhydric alcohol.
• License Balances:
  • Refiners must maintain a balance within ±50,000 metric tons.
  • SCP and Poly manufacturers must maintain a balance within ±10,000 short tons.
• Credits:
  • Credits are generated based on the volume of transfers and usage, and are subject to balance limits.
  • Refiners must export or transfer within 90 days of the transaction, while SCP and Poly licensees have 18 months to do so.
• Transfers and Exports:
  • The volume of transfers is closely tied to the long-term level of SCP exports and Poly use.
  • The WASDE now includes a forecast for license transfers, showing variability based on market expectations.

Summary of Trends

• Production: Both sugarcane and sugarbeet production are expected to increase in 2018/19, though Louisiana's sugarcane production is projected to decline slightly compared to 2017/18.
• Imports: The U.S. is expected to maintain a stable import level, with Mexico remaining a key supplier.
• Deliveries: Domestic deliveries for food and beverage use have been below long-term trends, influenced by slow shipping and the impact of natural disasters.
• Stocks: Ending stocks are forecast to rise, indicating a surplus in both the U.S. and Mexico markets.
• Re-export Program: The program plays a significant role in shaping domestic delivery forecasts, with complex balance and credit management rules.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of production forecasts, import and export dynamics, and the U.S. Re-export Program in influencing the sugar and sweeteners market outlook. While production is expected to increase, domestic deliveries remain constrained, leading to higher ending stocks. The program's structure and rules are critical in managing the flow of sugar and its derivatives across different sectors and international markets.