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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the U.S. and Mexican sugar markets for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 market years, focusing on production, supply, use, and trade dynamics.

Main Points

U.S. Sugar Market (2015/16 and 2016/17)

• Estimated Sugar Supplies (2015/16): 14.116 million STRV, a 53,000 STRV reduction from the previous month due to lower imports and beet sugar production.
• Total Use (2015/16): Unchanged at 12.230 million STRV.
• Exports (2015/16): Increased by 10,000 STRV to 75,000 STRV.
• Non-Food Deliveries (2015/16): Reduced by 10,000 STRV to 155,000 STRV.
• Ending Stocks (2015/16): Estimated at 1.886 million STRV, resulting in a 15.4% stocks-to-use ratio.
• Projected U.S. Sugar Production (2016/17): 8.961 million STRV, up 251,000 STRV from the June report.
  • Beet Sugar: Increased by 102,000 STRV to 5.192 million STRV.
  • Cane Sugar: Increased by 149,000 STRV to 3.769 million STRV.
  • Louisiana: Accounts for 109,000 STRV of the increase due to a 6.8% increase in sugarcane acreage.
• Imports (2016/17): Projected at 3.068 million STRV, a 408,000 STRV decline from the previous month.
  • Mexico: Reduced by 387,000 STRV to 1.371 million STRV due to policy changes in the countervailing duty suspension agreement.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio (2016/17): Projected at 13.5%, down from 15.4% in 2015/16.

U.S. Sugar Production by State and Region

• Planted Acreage (2016/17): 1.165 million acres, with increases in the Grain Plains and Western regions.
• Harvested Acreage (2016/17): 1.149 million acres, a 0.3% increase from 2015/16.
• Yield and Recovery: Estimated at 30.6 tons per acre, with a 2.2% increase in production compared to the June forecast.

Mexican Sugar Market (2015/16 and 2016/17)

• Estimated Sugar Production (2015/16): 6.119 million MT, down 65,000 MT from the June estimate.
• Domestic Deliveries (2015/16): Increased by 100,000 MT to 4.431 million MT, matching Conadesuca's revised estimate.
• High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) Deliveries (2015/16): Reduced by 24,000 MT, partially offsetting the increase in total sweetener deliveries.
• Total Sugar Supplies (2015/16): Estimated at 6.999 million MT, reflecting the production decline and increased domestic deliveries.
• Sugar Exports (2015/16): Estimated at 1.213 million MT, with exports to the U.S. at 1.163 million MT and to other countries at 50,000 MT.
• Ending Stocks (2015/16): Estimated at 1.101 million MT, with a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 24.9%, down from 29.2% in June.
• Projected Sugar Production (2016/17): 6.100 million MT, with Conadesuca estimating 6.174 million MT.
• IMMEX Exports (2016/17): Estimated at 452,000 MT, with some uncertainty around the additional volume granted in May.

Key Information

• U.S. Policy Impact: The countervailing duty suspension agreement with Mexico in 2014 has influenced the U.S. sugar import levels, particularly from Mexico.
• Import Limitations: The Export Limit set by the U.S. Department of Commerce (USDOC) is expected to remain unchanged, affecting Mexican sugar access to the U.S. market.
• Trade Adjustments: Changes in Mexico's IMMEX program have altered trade patterns and export volumes.
• Market Trends: The U.S. sugar market is projected to see a slight increase in production, while imports are expected to decline due to policy and trade adjustments.
• Supply and Demand Balance: The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decrease in 2016/17, indicating a tighter market.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: U.S. sugar supply and use by fiscal year, showing changes in production, imports, exports, and ending stocks.
• Table 2: Planted sugarbeet area by state and region, highlighting the increase in planted and harvested areas.
• Table 3: Beet sugar production projections for 2016/17, including changes in planted and harvested areas.
• Table 4: Sugarcane harvested acreage by state, showing the increase in Louisiana and the decline in Hawaii.
• Table 5: Mexico's sugar supply and use, including production, imports, exports, and ending stocks.
• Table 6: USDA and Conadesuca sugar projections for Mexico, comparing data from both sources.
• Figure 1: U.S. beet sugar planted and harvested acreage.
• Figure 6: World and U.S. sugar prices from 2013 to 2016, indicating price trends.

Summary

The U.S. sugar market for 2016/17 shows an increase in production due to higher harvested acreage forecasts for both sugarbeets and sugarcane. However, imports are projected to decline due to policy changes and trade regulations, particularly affecting Mexican sugar. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decrease, indicating a more balanced market. In Mexico, the 2015/16 sugar harvest concluded with a slight production decline, but increased domestic deliveries and stable exports to the U.S. suggest a stable market. The document also highlights the impact of the IMMEX program on trade flows and the importance of monitoring sugar prices and market trends.