20170119-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2017.01.19_15页_1mb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary (January 19, 2017)

Core Content Overview

This document provides the U.S. and Mexico sugar and sweeteners outlook for the 2016/17 fiscal year, based on the January 2017 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. It outlines production, imports, exports, domestic use, and ending stocks for both countries, as well as details on high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) production and its role in the U.S. market.

U.S. Sugar Outlook

Projected Production

• Total U.S. sugar production for 2016/17: 9.313 million short tons, raw value (STRV), a 29,000-STRV decrease from the previous month's projection.
• Beet sugar production: Remains at 5.371 million STRV, unchanged from the previous month.
• Cane sugar production: Decreased by 29,000 STRV to 3.942 million STRV, mainly due to lower production in Louisiana as its harvest season concludes.
• Sugarbeet production: Reached a record high of 36.881 million short tons in 2016, with a 5.8% shrink rate during storage, in line with long-term averages.
• Sugar extraction rate: Projected at 14.68%, slightly below the 10-year average of 14.81% but higher than the previous year.

Imports and Exports

• Total U.S. sugar imports: Projected at 2.694 million STRV, a 2,000-STRV decrease from the December projection.
• Tariff-rate quota imports: Reduced to 1.532 million STRV.
• Non-program imports: Unchanged at 987,000 STRV, with 972,000 STRV from Mexico.
• U.S. sugar exports: Remain at 25,000 STRV, with 832,000 STRV going to the U.S. and Puerto Rico.

Domestic Use and Stocks

• Total use: Unchanged at 12.180 million STRV, with 12.000 million STRV for food and beverage use.
• Ending stocks: Reduced to 1.881 million STRV, a 31,000-STRV decrease from the previous month, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.4%.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

Projected Production

• Total sugar production for 2016/17: 6.371 million metric tons (MT), unchanged from the previous month and matching the initial estimate by Conadesuca.
• Sugar mills production through January 7: At 11.559 million MT, 4.3% below the previous year and 13.5% behind the initial estimate.
• Sugar recovery rates: Lagging behind the previous year, but expected to converge to a narrower range as the season progresses.

Imports and Exports

• Total sugar imports for 2016/17: Increased to 60,000 MT, up 50,000 MT from the December projection, due to continued imports from non-U.S. sources.
• Imports from the U.S.: Declined to 30,000 MT in 2015/16, but Mexico reported increased imports from Brazil and other countries.
• Total sugar exports: Projected at 1.470 million MT, unchanged from the previous month.
• Exports to the U.S. and Puerto Rico: At 832,000 MT, in line with the USDOC Export Limit.
• Exports to other countries: Projected at 637,000 MT, unchanged from December.

Domestic Deliveries and Stocks

• Domestic deliveries: Increased to 4.769 million MT, a 50,000-MT increase from the previous month.
• Human consumption deliveries: Unchanged at 4.389 million MT.
• IMMEX deliveries: Unchanged at 330,000 MT, reflecting only domestic sugar being delivered to the program.
• Ending stocks: Unchanged at 1.229 million MT, with a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 28.0%.

High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) Outlook

U.S. HFCS Production and Use

• Total HFCS production in 2015/16: 8.380 million STRV, a 1.4% decline from the previous year.
• Domestic HFCS use: Fell 2.0% to 7.097 million STRV.
• HFCS-42 production: Declined 3.2% to 2.432 million STRV, primarily used in food manufacturing.
• HFCS-55 production: Declined 0.7% to 5.948 million STRV, used mainly in beverages.
• HFCS-42 deliveries: Declined 4.3% to 2.415 million STRV, continuing a 4.6% annual decline since 2006/07.
• HFCS-55 deliveries: Declined 0.9% to 4.683 million STRV, remaining above the 2012/13 minimum.

HFCS Market Trends

• Exports to Mexico: Became an increasingly important part of the U.S. market due to the gap between production and domestic use.
• HFCS-55 exports to Mexico: Declined 2.5% in 2015/16 compared to the previous year, and 14.9% below the peak in 2011/12.
• HFCS prices: Increased in 2015/16 due to restructuring of the wet-milling sector, with HFCS-55 averaging 39.77 cents per pound and HFCS-42 at 36.45 cents per pound.

Key Information and Trends

• U.S. sugar production remains at record levels despite a small monthly decrease.
• Beet sugar is the primary source, with cane sugar showing a decline, mainly in Louisiana.
• Imports have slightly decreased, with a focus on quota programs and Mexico.
• Domestic use is expected to increase by 1.0% from the previous year.
• Ending stocks have decreased, reflecting tighter supply conditions.
• Mexico is projected to increase sugar production, but early harvest performance has lagged.
• HFCS production and use have continued to decline over the past decade, with HFCS-55 showing more stability than HFCS-42.
• HFCS exports to Mexico remain significant, but growth has slowed due to domestic sugar availability and consumer preferences.
• HFCS prices have increased due to market restructuring and rising corn prices.
• Corn allocation for sweetener use has decreased over time, with ethanol production taking a larger share of the corn crop.