2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kenya_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Three_66页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Kenya's Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the fifth review under Kenya's three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, which was approved in January 2011 and augmented in December 2011. The review includes a request for a waiver and modification of performance criteria, and the IMF staff report, staff supplement, and press release are provided as part of the package. The staff team conducted discussions with Kenyan officials from February 4 to 14, 2013, and the report was finalized on April 1, 2013.

Main Views and Key Points

Economic Overview

Political Transition: Kenya experienced largely peaceful elections in March 2013, with the Supreme Court confirming the winner, Mr. Kenyatta. Mr. Odinga conceded the election, and the International Criminal Court delayed Mr. Kenyatta's trial.
Economic Growth: Despite political uncertainty, the European crisis, and security concerns, Kenya's economy showed resilience. Growth is expected to accelerate post-elections.
Inflation: Inflation fell below the 5% target range in December 2012 and remained at 4.5% in February 2013. This was attributed to good harvests and tight macroeconomic policies.
Oil and Coal Discoveries: Kenya has made significant oil and coal discoveries, particularly in the northern Turkana region and the Mui Basin. These discoveries are expected to boost the economy in the long term.

Program Performance

Fiscal Targets: The primary fiscal deficit was met in December 2012 at 2.0% of GDP, contributing to a government debt-to-GDP ratio below 44%. Revenue shortfalls were offset by a tax on financial transfer fees and cuts in non-priority spending.
External Position: International reserves exceeded US$5.5 billion, equivalent to 3.4 months of projected imports. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) intervened in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the shilling.
Debt Sustainability: The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates a low risk of debt distress. The authorities are not including potential revenues from new natural resource discoveries in their projections.

Monetary Policy

Interest Rates: The CBK reduced the policy rate by 850 basis points since July 2012, reaching 9.5%. This helped to bring credit growth in line with deposit growth.
Credit Growth: While credit growth declined in 2013, it remains consistent with a structural increase in financial intermediation, driven by mobile banking.

Structural Reforms

Public Finance Management (PFM) Act: Includes provisions for decentralization and is being finalized with implementing regulations.
Treasury Single Account (TSA): The CBK is preparing for its implementation, aiming to improve financial management and ensure transfers to counties do not disrupt pro-poor spending.
VAT Act: The adoption of the new VAT Act was delayed due to pre-election pressures but is expected to be re-discussed in the new National Assembly.
Pension System: A defined-contribution pension system for civil servants is being implemented to reduce contingent liabilities.

Key Policy Discussions

Fiscal Discipline: The authorities aim to reduce the primary deficit to 1.3% of GDP by 2015/16. They are also rationalizing civil servant salaries and offsetting increased expenditure with cuts in non-priority spending.
Monetary Policy: The CBK is cautious in easing monetary policy to maintain inflation control and stabilize the shilling. It plans to further build up international reserves.
Risk Management: The external current account deficit is expected to narrow, supported by remittances and direct investment. However, risks remain due to the euro area crisis and reduced exports to Europe.

Mobile Banking Revolution

M-Pesa: Launched in 2007, M-Pesa has revolutionized financial services in Kenya, with over 15 million users and monthly transactions exceeding KSh. 80 billion (31% of GDP).
M-Shwari: A mobile banking product launched in 2012, allowing low-income users to open interest-bearing accounts and borrow up to US$250. It has attracted 1% of total deposits within three months.
Financial Inclusion: M-Pesa's success has spurred competition and lower transaction costs. It has also facilitated government cash transfer programs and remittances.

Conclusion

The IMF staff recommends the completion of the fifth review, the disbursement of SDR 71.921 million, and a waiver for non-compliance with the performance criterion on external arrears. The program targets for the next 12 months are modified to align with the revised macroeconomic outlook. The authorities are committed to maintaining fiscal discipline, ensuring monetary policy aligns with inflation targets, and strengthening the institutional framework through structural reforms.

Key Documents

Staff Report: Released on April 1, 2013, covering macroeconomic outlook and program performance.
Staff Supplement: Includes the Joint IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis.
Press Release: Released on April 16, 2013, announcing the review outcome.
Letter of Intent (LOI): Includes commitments from the authorities.
Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU): Updated and included in the staff report.