20160718-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed overview of the Hong Kong and global markets, including key indices, economic data, corporate news, and market performance indicators. It highlights trends, results calendars, and stock performance, along with valuations and short-selling activity.

Main Market Indices

• Hang Seng Index (HSI):

  • Closed at 21,659
  • Daily change: +0.5%
  • Year-to-Date (YTD) change: -1.2%

• HSCEI:

  • Closed at 9,049
  • Daily change: +0.4%
  • YTD change: -6.3%

• Shanghai Composite:

  • Closed at 3,054
  • Daily change: 0.0%
  • YTD change: -13.7%

• Shenzhen Composite:

  • Closed at 2,039
  • Daily change: -0.3%
  • YTD change: -11.7%

External Market Conditions

• U.S. Market:

  • Mixed performance due to a terrorist attack in Nice and better-than-expected retail sales and inflation figures.
  • Dow Jones: Closed at 18,517, up 10 points
  • S&P 500: Closed at 2,161, down 2 points
  • NASDAQ Composite: Closed at 5,029, down 4 points

• ADR Impact:

  • ADRs dropped, effectively putting HSI down 68 points, closing at 21,591

• Oil Prices:

  • New York crude oil futures closed at $45.95/bbl, up $0.27
  • New York gold futures settled at $1,327.40/oz, down $4.80

Hong Kong Market Turnover

• HSI: Turnover HK$26.2bn, daily change +11.12%
• HSCCI: Turnover HK$5.3bn, daily change -1.09%
• HSCEI: Turnover HK$16.5bn, daily change +25.88%
• Main Board: Turnover HK$73.2bn, daily change +17.40%

Yesterday's Hong Kong Equities

• China's Q2 GDP grew 6.7% YoY, exceeding expectations.
• HSI closed at 21,659, up 98 points
• HSCEI rose 39 points to 9,049
• BYD (1211.HK) saw a +5.2% rise due to a private A-share placement by Samsung
• Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157.HK) issued a profit warning, resulting in a -6.8% drop

Stock in Focus: China Harmony New Energy Auto (3836.HK)

• Last Close: HK$4.33

• Entry: HK$4.25

• Target: HK$4.88

• Stop-loss: HK$3.96

• YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -20.8% / -1.6% / -12.7% / -37.2%

• Market Cap: HK$6.82bn

• 3M Average Daily Volume: 6.22mn shares

• FY1 Forward P/E: 7.9

• Key Highlights:

  • Partnered with Foxconn and Tencent to form Future Mobility, aiming to launch a smart electric car.
  • Subsidiary Green Field Motor is expected to release a high-speed smart electric vehicle in 2016.
  • After-sales service revenue is projected to grow significantly, expected to reach 80% of gross margin by end of 2016.

Today's Top Picks

1. Ban Loong (30.HK):

   • Last Close: HK$0.122
   • Target: HK$0.134
   • Stop-loss: HK$0.109
   • Reason: Strong share price rally and increased turnover

2. Tiangong International (826.HK):

   • Last Close: HK$0.57
   • Target: HK$0.62
   • Stop-loss: HK$0.51
   • Reason: Share price has risen for several days, with potential for further increase

Sector Performance Overview

• Top Performing Sectors (Daily % change):

  • Sports accessories: +4.5%
  • Chinese Insurers: +2.9%
  • Automobile: +2.0%
  • HK Telecoms: +1.4%
  • IPP: +1.0%
  • Chinese Property: +0.9%
  • Local Property: +0.7%
  • Department Store: +0.6%
  • Building Materials: +0.5%
  • Logistics: +0.5%
  • Aluminum: +0.4%
  • Gaming: +0.3%
  • REITs: +0.3%
  • Environmental and New Energy: +0.2%
  • Coal: +0.1%

• Major Stocks in Top Performing Sectors:

  • Sports accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xtep Int'l (1368), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
  • Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
  • Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), Brilliance Chi (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
  • HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)
  • Chinese Property: COLI (688), China Res Land (1109), Sunac (1918), Country Garden (2007), Evergrande (3333)
  • Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
  • Building Materials: Shanshui Cement (691), Anhui Conch (914), China Res Cement (1313), BBMG (2009), CNBM (3323)
  • Logistics: Kerry Log Net (636), SITC (1308)
  • Aluminum: Chalco (2600), China Hongqiao (1378), China Zhongwang (1333), RUSAL (486)
  • Gaming: Galaxy Ent. (27), SJM Hldg (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282)
  • REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
  • Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
  • Coal: China Shenhua (1088), Yanzhou Coal (1171), China Coal (1898)

Forward P/E and Valuations

• Hang Seng Index (HSI):

  • FY16E P/E: 12.0
  • Long-term average: 11.0
  • Deviation from average: +9.4%
  • FY1 EPS growth: -10.3%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +10.2%

• HSCEI:

  • FY16E P/E: 7.8
  • Long-term average: 7.9
  • Deviation from average: -2.2%
  • FY1 EPS growth: -8.7%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +9.0%

• Shanghai Composite:

  • FY16E P/E: 14.0
  • Long-term average: 10.7
  • Deviation from average: +30.3%
  • FY1 EPS growth: +20.2%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +12.8%

• S&P 500:

  • FY16E P/E: 18.4
  • Long-term average: 15.3
  • Deviation from average: +20.1%
  • FY1 EPS growth: +9.0%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +13.4%

Market Data

Best Performers

• ANTA SPORTS PROD (2020.HK):

  • Price: HK$17.48
  • 1D change: +9.1%
  • 5D change: +17.5%
  • 1M change: +15.5%
  • YTD change: -17.6%
  • Turnover: HK$428.0m
  • FY1 P/E: 16.2
  • FY2 P/E: 14.0

• POLY PROPERTY (119.HK):

  • Price: HK$2.23
  • 1D change: +8.8%
  • 5D change: +10.4%
  • 1M change: +16.1%
  • YTD change: -11.9%
  • Turnover: HK$90.0m
  • FY1 P/E: 23.0
  • FY2 P/E: 25.6

• BOER POWER HOLDI (1685.HK):

  • Price: HK$3.28
  • 1D change: +7.9%
  • 5D change: +12.7%
  • 1M change: +6.5%
  • YTD change: -75.9%
  • Turnover: HK$31.1m
  • FY1 P/E: 3.7
  • FY2 P/E: 3.2

• HAIER ELECTRONIC (1169.HK):

  • Price: HK$13.40
  • 1D change: +7.2%
  • 5D change: +18.2%
  • 1M change: +20.1%
  • YTD change: -14.8%
  • Turnover: HK$91.8m
  • FY1 P/E: 11.5
  • FY2 P/E: 10.6

• PACIFIC BASIN (2343.HK):

  • Price: HK$0.91
  • 1D change: +7.1%
  • 5D change: +11.0%
  • 1M change: +19.7%
  • YTD change: -26.4%
  • Turnover: HK$21.3m
  • FY1 P/E: N/A
  • FY2 P/E: N/A

Worst Performers

• JU TENG INTL HDG (3336.HK):

  • Price: HK$2.43
  • 1D change: -16.8%
  • 5D change: -17.1%
  • 1M change: -19.0%
  • YTD change: -34.1%
  • Turnover: HK$51.4m
  • FY1 P/E: 3.4
  • FY2 P/E: 2.9

• COSMO LADY CHINA (2298.HK):

  • Price: HK$2.80
  • 1D change: -15.2%
  • 5D change: -23.7%
  • 1M change: -33.3%
  • YTD change: -56.9%
  • Turnover: HK$140.0m
  • FY1 P/E: 7.9
  • FY2 P/E: 6.9

• CIMC ENRIC HLDG (3899.HK):

  • Price: HK$3.20
  • 1D change: -8.6%
  • 5D change: -8.0%
  • 1M change: -13.0%
  • YTD change: -29.7%
  • Turnover: HK$51.3m
  • FY1 P/E: 8.9
  • FY2 P/E: 8.3

• ZOOMLION HEAVY-H (1157.HK):

  • Price: HK$2.48
  • 1D change: -6.8%
  • 5D change: -3.1%
  • 1M change: +6.0%
  • YTD change: -14.2%
  • Turnover: HK$49.4m
  • FY1 P/E: N/A
  • FY2 P/E: 31.0

• CHINA MODERN DAI (1117.HK):

  • Price: HK$0.99
  • 1D change: -6.6%
  • 5D change: -11.6%
  • 1M change: -23.3%
  • YTD change: -50.7%
  • Turnover: HK$50.1m
  • FY1 P/E: 9.3
  • FY2 P/E: 7.2

A-Share Premium to H-Share

Summary of Key Information

• Market Trends: The HSI and HSCEI showed mixed performance, with HSI slightly up and HSCEI also slightly up.
• Economic Data: China's Q2 GDP exceeded expectations, while U.S. economic data was also better than expected.
• Corporate Highlights: China Harmony New Energy Auto is focusing on electric vehicles and after-sales service, which is expected to drive profit growth.
• Sector Performance: Sports accessories and Chinese insurers led the gains, while coal and some other sectors showed mixed results.
• Valuations: The HSI and HSCEI had forward P/E ratios below long-term averages, indicating potential undervaluation.
• Short Selling: Several stocks, including JU TENG INTL HDG and COSMO LADY CHINA, showed significant short-selling activity.
• Currency and Interest Rates: The USD/HKD exchange rate remained stable, while U.S. Treasury yields increased slightly. HK interest rates showed a slight rise.