20240614-国联证券-美联储6月议息会议点评_美联储放偏鹰信号_年内或只有一次降息_24页_1mb

美联储6月议息会议总结：利率维持不变，降息路径仍存分歧

要点分析

1. 利率决策
   美联储6月维持政策利率目标区间在5.25%-5.5%，与市场预期一致。会议纪要指出没有委员将加息作为基本预期，但对2024年降息次数存在分歧：8人预计降息1次，7人预计2次，4人预计不降息，显示鹰派倾向。点阵图较3月显示降息共识减弱，多数委员认为2024年至少降1次。

2. 通胀与就业数据

• 5月通胀数据超预期回落：CPI同比3.3%（前值3.4%），核心CPI環比增长0.16%（预期0.2%），再通胀风险下降，核心商品通胀持续通缩，服务项韧性较强。
• 就业市场降温：非农环比增27.2万人，失业率升破4%，但职位空缺与求职者比例显示供需趋缓。

3. 政策利率限制性
   美联储认为当前利率高于通胀，符合控制通胀的必要条件，且实际利率已高于自然利率（基于纽约联储模型），流动性风险可控。

4. 缩表节奏放缓
   自2024年6月起，缩表速度调整为每月缩表国债250亿、MBS 350亿，总缩表规模已超1.6万亿，对小银行流动性风险需关注。

5. 市场反应
   美联储释放偏鹰信号，导致美股下跌、美债收益率上行、黄金承压，但后续数据显示利率或已触顶。

United States Federal Reserve June Interest Rate Policy Meeting Summary: Maintaining Interest Rates, Questions Remain

Key Analysis

1. Interest Rate Decision:
   The Federal Reserve kept the policy interest rate target range at 5.25%-5.5%, aligning with market expectations. However, there was significant divergence on the 2024 interest rate path:

• 8 members expected one rate cut
• 7 members expected two rate cuts
• 4 members anticipated no changes

This represents a shift from the March dot plot, which showed broader consensus towards multiple cuts. The absence of hawkish voices underscores the Fed's cautious stance, but the division over pace complicates near-term market pricing.

2. Inflation and Employment Data:

• May Inflation Below Expectations: CPI rose 3.3% YoY (vs 3.4% prior), with core CPI gaining just 0.16% MoM. Services remain resilient despite cooling inflation, while core goods continue contracting.
• Labor Market Moderating: Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to 272k, with official unemployment touching 4.0%. However, labor demand remains slightly stronger than supply, signaling gradual cooling rather than collapse.

3. Restrictive Policy Interest Rates:
   Current rates remain above current inflation, meeting policy targets for inflation control. Data shows real rates significantly exceed the "natural rate" derived from modeling, suggesting policy remains effective in restraining inflation.

4. Reduced Secular Tightening Pace:
   Effective July 2024, the Fed will slow quantitative tapering to $25B ($220B annually). Aggregate tapering (>$1.6T) continues, though market implications shift as scaling back alters liquidity dynamics.

5. Market Reactions:
   The meeting initially signaled hawkishness, with Treasury yields rising immediately following the press conference. However, the delayed market response suggests rates may already be nearing a peak, despite lingering inflation concerns.