经合组织发布最新全球经济展望报告：中国经济今年预计增长8.5_-OECD-2021.5-221页_2mb

报告摘要

OECD Economic Outlook Summary - May 2021

Core Content

The OECD Economic Outlook for May 2021 highlights a significant but uneven global recovery from the economic impacts of the pandemic. The report outlines both the progress made and the ongoing challenges, emphasizing the need for flexible and sustainable policy frameworks to support long-term economic resilience and growth.

Main Views

Global Recovery Outlook

Global GDP is projected to grow by 5.25% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022, a marked increase from the -3.5% contraction in 2020.
The global economy has returned to pre-pandemic activity levels, but it remains below the expected growth path by the end of 2022.
The OECD area is expected to grow by 5.25% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, with the United States leading the recovery.
China has already caught up with the pre-pandemic growth path and is expected to maintain it in 2021 and 2022.
Emerging-market economies such as India and Brazil are projected to experience larger GDP shortfalls relative to pre-pandemic expectations.

Inflation and Cost Pressures

Inflation is expected to rise but remain moderate, with headline inflation driven by commodity price increases, shipping cost surges, and one-off factors such as tax changes.
Underlying inflation is unlikely to rise significantly due to spare capacity and modest wage growth.
Cost pressures are increasing, but the impact is expected to ease as production capacity normalizes and consumption shifts from goods to services.

Labour Market and Consumption

Labour market conditions are still weaker than pre-pandemic levels, with unemployment rates remaining above pre-crisis levels in many countries.
Household saving increased significantly in 2020, and spending intentions have risen, indicating potential for rebound in consumption.
Online job postings have returned to pre-pandemic levels in some countries and sectors, suggesting improving employment conditions.

Policy Responses

Swift policy actions have been crucial in health and economic recovery, including fiscal stimulus, monetary support, and financial assistance.
Vaccination efforts have been uneven, with emerging and low-income economies lagging behind, exposing them to higher risks of reduced growth and sovereign funding issues.
Fiscal support is expected to moderate in 2022, but flexible and targeted measures are necessary to sustain recovery and prevent long-term scarring.

Risks and Uncertainties

The outlook is subject to significant upside and downside risks, including new virus variants, slower vaccination rates, and uncertainty in trade and financial markets.
Emerging-market economies and developing countries are more vulnerable to external financial shocks due to increased indebtedness.
Global economic prospects are improving, but continued divergence across countries is expected, especially in vaccination progress and economic resilience.

Key Information

Economic Growth Projections

Region	2019	2020	2021	2022
World	3.3%	2.7%	-3.5%	5.8%
G20	3.5%	2.8%	-3.1%	6.3%
OECD	2.2%	1.6%	-4.8%	5.3%
United States	2.5%	2.2%	-3.5%	6.9%
Euro area	1.8%	1.3%	-6.7%	4.3%
Japan	0.8%	0.0%	-4.7%	2.6%
Non-OECD	4.3%	3.7%	-2.3%	6.2%
China	6.8%	6.0%	2.3%	8.5%
India	6.8%	4.0%	-7.7%	9.9%
Brazil	-0.3%	1.4%	-4.1%	3.7%

Unemployment Rates

Region	2019	2020	2021	2022
World	6.5%	5.4%	7.1%	6.5%
Euro area	1.8%	1.3%	-6.7%	4.3%
OECD	2.2%	1.6%	-4.8%	5.3%

Inflation Rates

Region	2019	2020	2021	2022
World	1.7%	1.9%	1.5%	2.7%
OECD	2.2%	1.6%	-4.8%	5.3%

Policy Recommendations

Accelerate vaccination globally, especially in emerging and low-income economies, to limit the adverse impact of containment measures.
Maintain accommodative monetary policy in advanced economies and allow temporary inflation overshooting as long as underlying price pressures are contained.
Implement macroprudential policies to ensure financial stability in an environment of low interest rates and high liquidity.
Continue income support for households and companies until vaccination eases restrictions on high-contact activities.
Use grants and equity rather than debt to support viable small firms and displaced workers.
Enhance public investment in health, digital, and energy infrastructure to improve resilience and sustainable growth.
Ensure fiscal policy is contingent on the state of the economy, with moderation in 2022 expected as crisis-related support schemes end.
Promote international cooperation to address debt problems and build more resilient economies.

Conclusion

The report underscores that while the global economic outlook is improving, the recovery is uneven and not yet complete. It calls for continued policy flexibility, international cooperation, and targeted support to mitigate long-term scarring and promote sustainable growth. The main challenges remain vaccination disparities, inflation risks, and debt sustainability in emerging-market economies.