美国农业部-美股-农业行业-美国小麦展望：2019-2020年美国小麦产量、库存上升，出口受挫-20190613-27页_1mb

Wheat Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global wheat market conditions for the 2019/20 marketing year. It highlights changes in production, exports, and domestic utilization, as well as the impact of these changes on supply and demand dynamics and prices.

Main Points

Domestic Outlook

• 2019/20 Production: Winter wheat production for 2019/20 is raised by 6 million bushels to 1,274.5 million bushels, driven by improved yields in key states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Montana.
  • Hard Red Winter (HRW): Production increased by 14 million bushels to 794.395 million bushels.
  • Soft Red Winter (SRW): Production decreased by 6.3 million bushels to 258.302 million bushels due to adverse weather conditions.
  • White Winter Wheat: Production is down by 1.8 million bushels to 221.754 million bushels.
• Carryin: Carryin for 2019/20 is reduced by 19.2 million bushels due to increased exports in the previous marketing year.
• Feed and Residual Use: New crop feed and residual use is up by 50 million bushels, supported by lower corn production and feeding.
• Ending Stocks: Ending stocks for 2019/20 are reduced by 69.2 million bushels to 1,071.5 million bushels, reflecting tighter supply and increased domestic use.
• All-Wheat Farm Price: The all-wheat season average farm price (SAFP) is increased by 40 cents to $5.10 per bushel, driven by the improved corn price and reduced supply.

International Outlook

• Global Wheat Production: Projected to reach a record 780.8 million tons, up 3.3 million tons from the previous month and 49.1 million tons from the previous year.
• Foreign Wheat Production: Russia, Ukraine, and India have seen increased production, while the EU and Brazil have experienced reductions.
  • Russia: Production is up 1.0 million tons to 78.0 million tons.
  • Ukraine: Production is up 1.0 million tons to 30.0 million tons.
  • India: Production is up 1.3 million tons to 101.2 million tons.
  • EU: Production remains unchanged, but some countries like Romania, Italy, and Poland are projected to increase output.
  • Brazil: Production is down by 0.2 million tons due to lower wheat area in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.
• Global Wheat Consumption: Projected to increase by 3.6 million tons this month, with Russia and Australia seeing the largest increases in consumption.
• Global Ending Stocks: Projected to increase to a record 294.3 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from the previous month.
• International Trade: World wheat trade for the 2019/20 marketing year is projected to increase slightly to 183.9 million tons, with increased imports in Indonesia and Malaysia.
  • Russia: Exports increased by 1.0 million tons to 37.0 million tons.
  • Ukraine: Exports increased by 0.5 million tons to 19.5 million tons.
  • EU and Australia: Exports are reduced due to increased competition and lower production.
  • Brazil: Exports are down due to lower production and reduced demand.

Key Information

• Domestic Exports: The U.S. exports for the 2018/19 marketing year are revised upward by 25 million bushels to 950 million bushels, driven by strong export performance in the fourth quarter.
• Domestic Utilization: Domestic use is up by 50 million bushels, primarily due to increased feed and residual use.
• Competition: Recovery in EU and Australian production and exportable supplies creates significant competition for U.S. wheat in global markets.
• Price Trends: The wheat-to-corn price ratio is improved due to the rise in corn prices and the tightening of the wheat balance sheet.
• Weather Impact: Improved growing conditions in key winter wheat states have led to better yields, while adverse conditions in other areas have resulted in lower production and delayed planting.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The 2019/20 wheat outlook shows a mix of increased production in key areas, reduced carryin, and increased domestic utilization. These factors have contributed to a tighter balance sheet and higher all-wheat farm prices. Globally, increased production in Russia, Ukraine, and India poses a challenge to U.S. exports, while reduced supplies in the EU and Australia affect their export prospects. The report underscores the importance of monitoring weather conditions, production trends, and trade dynamics to understand the evolving wheat market.