美国农业部-美股-农业行业-根据甜菜种植状况，2019-2020年美国的制糖产量会略高-20190617-44页_657kb

Outlook Summary: U.S. and Mexico Sugar Markets (June 2019)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an updated outlook for U.S. and Mexico sugar production and market conditions for the 2018/19 and 2019/20 crop years. It includes production forecasts, import and export trends, domestic use, and statistical models used to estimate yields and early-season production.

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U.S. Sugar Production Outlook

Main Points

• 2019/20 Production: Estimated at 9.138 million STRV, a 24,000 STRV increase from the May forecast, and a 2.1% increase from the 2018/19 estimate.
• 2018/19 Production: Raised to 4.920 million STRV, a 10,000 STRV increase from the May forecast.
• Beet Sugar Production: Both years saw increases due to higher expected yields from the 2019/20 crop.
• Cane Sugar Production: Slightly reduced in 2019/20 to 3.985 million STRV (a 16,000 STRV decrease) and in 2018/19 to 4.028 million STRV (a 9,000 STRV decrease), mainly due to lower expectations in Texas.
• Regional Breakdown:
  • Florida: 2.051 million STRV (unchanged from May)
  • Louisiana: 1.800 million STRV (unchanged from May)
  • Texas: 134,000 STRV (lower than previous estimates)
  • Hawaii: 0 STRV

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Imports and Exports

Main Points

• Total Imports (2019/20): Unchanged at 3.219 million STRV.
• Quota Imports (2019/20): Projected at 1.381 million STRV.
• Non-Program Imports (2019/20): Estimated at 1.488 million STRV.
• Mexico Imports (2019/20): Unchanged at 1.418 million STRV.
• High-Duty Imports (2018/19): Increased to 90,000 STRV due to pace-to-date entries.
• Total Exports: Remain at 35,000 STRV for both years.
• Refined Sugar Exports: Remain unchanged at 35,000 STRV for both years.

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Domestic Deliveries

Main Points

• Domestic Deliveries (2018/19): Unchanged at 12.125 million STRV.
• Domestic Deliveries (2019/20): Projected at 12.175 million STRV, representing a 0.6% increase from 2018/19 and a 0.4% increase from the previous year.
• Reporters (Beet and Cane): Showed a 0.3% increase in deliveries through April 2019 compared to the same period in the previous year.
• Non-Reporter, Direct Consumption Imports: Increased by 42.6% through April 2019, though this trend is expected to slow.

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Planting Progress and Yield Forecasts

Main Points

• Planting Conditions: Challenging weather in the Eastern U.S. delayed planting in Minnesota, North Dakota, and Michigan, while Western regions like Idaho planted at a normal pace.
• Planting Pace: Total U.S. sugarbeet planting was 1.120 million acres for 2019/20, a 0.6% increase from the previous year.
• Yield Forecast (June 2019): Estimated at 30.8 short tons per acre, slightly higher than the previous month's 30.5.
• Planting Progress Models:
  • Best Indicator: 1st Sunday of May planting progress, with R-square of 0.870.
  • Early-Season Production Forecast: Based on the 1st Sunday of May model, expected at 511,000 STRV, a slight increase from May's estimate.

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Market Conditions and Prices

Main Points

• Refined Sugar Prices: Remained firm with no changes since December 2018.
• Producer Price Index (PPI): Shows stable refined sugar prices, reflecting actual transactions rather than quoted spot prices.
• Inventory Trends:
  • Cane Sugar Refiners: Held 1.842 million STRV in inventory at the end of April, the largest since 2010.
  • Beet Sugar Processors: Inventory levels are at or slightly above historical averages.

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Mexico Sugar Outlook

Main Points

• 2018/19 Production: Raised to 7.864 million metric tons, an 8.7% increase from the previous year.
• 2019/20 Production: Raised to 9.138 million STRV, due to a strong sugarcane harvest.
• Supply and Use:
  • Beginning Stocks (2018/19): Increased to 1.395 million MT.
  • Exports to the U.S.: Limited due to domestic market constraints and U.S. import restrictions.
  • Global Market Impact: Mexico's increased production is expected to bring stock levels in line with historical averages.

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Key Statistics and Trends

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use (2017/18 - 2019/20)

Item	2017/18 (STRV)	2018/19 (STRV)	2019/20 (STRV)
Beginning stocks	1,876	2,008	1,526
Total production	9,293	8,948	9,138
Total imports	3,277	2,875	3,219
Total supply	14,445	13,831	13,883
Total use	12,438	12,305	12,355
Ending stocks	2,008	1,526	1,528
Stocks-to-use ratio	16.14	12.40	12.37

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Conclusion

The U.S. sugar market is showing signs of recovery with increased beet sugar production, driven by improved yield expectations. However, cane sugar production has seen slight declines, primarily in Texas. Mexico's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, contributing to global supply stability. Domestic deliveries are on an upward trend, though the pace may slow in the coming months. Import levels remain stable, with Mexico continuing to be a key supplier. Market prices have remained firm, and inventory levels are indicating a balanced market. The outlook for 2019/20 is cautiously optimistic, with the potential for continued growth in beet sugar production and a return to more stable conditions in global markets.