2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Madagascar_Third_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_100页_3mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 18/239: Republic of Madagascar

Core Content

This report outlines the IMF's Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for the Republic of Madagascar, which was approved in July 2016 and has been successfully implemented. The review concluded on July 11, 2018, and led to the disbursement of SDR 31.43 million (about US$44.25 million), bringing total disbursements under the ECF arrangement to SDR 156.26 million (about US$220 million).

Madagascar, a low-income country with a fragile political situation, has been working on an ambitious economic reform program since 2014. The country has experienced economic recovery over the past few years, with growth exceeding 4% in 2017 and inflation under control, despite challenges such as drought, cyclone, and plague. The external position has also shown strength, with a current account deficit of 0.3% of GDP in 2017, and foreign exchange reserves increasing to cover 4 months of imports.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Program Implementation and Performance

• The program's quantitative performance criteria (PCs) and indicative targets (ITs) were met at end-December 2017, with substantial margins in most cases.
• The fiscal anchor, the domestic primary balance floor, was observed with a significant margin.
• Priority social spending surpassed its indicative target, showing progress in the program's objectives.
• Structural reforms have advanced, with six out of eight structural benchmarks (SBs) met by end-December 2017.

2. Fiscal Policy and Budget Adjustments

• The 2018 supplementary budget was submitted to parliament on May 25, 2018, with revised program targets.
• The domestic primary balance remains positive (0.1% of GDP), even though it is lower than the initial budget.
• Transfers to JIRAMA increased slightly due to the repayment of promissory notes and higher fuel prices.
• The wage bill was kept under control at 5.8% of GDP, and civil service pension fund transfers were adjusted to 0.15% of GDP.
• The authorities are working to reduce transfers to JIRAMA and improve the quality of public spending over the medium term.

3. Fuel Price Adjustments and Liabilities

• Incomplete fuel price adjustments have created liabilities to oil distributors.
• A new agreement was reached in late May 2018 to:
  • Contain liabilities by end-2018 through price adjustments and margin reductions.
  • Align pump prices with the reference price by end-2018.
  • Eliminate the liability in 2019 through a price surcharge.
  • Mitigate the financial impact on distributors by deferring tax payments into 2019.
• The IMF emphasized the importance of automated fuel price adjustments to prevent a lasting budget impact.

4. Monetary Policy and Financial Sector Development

• The Central Bank of Madagascar (BFM) has been managing liquidity effectively, despite exchange rate volatility.
• The policy rate was raised to 9.5% in 2017 to counter inflation.
• The monetary policy framework is being modernized to be more forward-looking.
• Reforms include:
  • Introducing penalty rates for reserve requirement violations.
  • Increasing the interest rate on its standing lending facility.
  • Submitting draft legislation to promote repo transactions by end-2018.
• The foreign exchange market is being developed, with foreign exchange swaps introduced in 2017, though used only in exceptional circumstances.
• The authorities are working to modernize foreign exchange legislation.

5. Structural Reforms and Governance

• The structural agenda includes:
  • Enhancing public investment management capacity.
  • Implementing the new law on social protection.
  • Reforming JIRAMA to reduce its operating losses and dependency on transfers.
• The legal framework for anti-money laundering (AML)/counter-terrorism financing (CFT) and asset recovery is being modernized.
• The authorities are committed to improving public financial management and fighting corruption.
• The reform of JIRAMA is also being integrated into the overall electricity sector strategy, which aims to increase access to electricity and promote renewable energy.

6. Outlook and Risks

• The macroeconomic outlook remains positive, with growth projected at 5% for the current year and higher levels in the next three years.
• Inflation is expected to decline gradually to 5-6%.
• Risks include:
  • Higher oil prices.
  • Political uncertainty from presidential elections in late 2018.
  • Natural disasters and terms of trade shocks.
• The program is subject to significant risks, particularly external sustainability and debt distress.

Key Reforms and Actions

• JIRAMA is being reformed to:
  • Reduce operating losses.
  • Improve distribution efficiency.
  • Increase tariffs to align with inflation.
• New tax laws and reforms are being implemented to:
  • Improve revenue mobilization.
  • Attract private investment.
  • Ensure tax incentives are carefully managed.
• Public financial management is being strengthened through:
  • Better forecasting.
  • Removal of ghost workers.
  • Delayed salary increases.
• The financial sector is being developed with:
  • A new banking law (first in 20 years).
  • Modernization of the legal framework for financial stability and supervision.
  • Financial inclusion efforts, including electronic money services.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board approved the third review of the ECF arrangement, recognizing the strong implementation of the economic program. The disbursement of SDR 31.43 million will support fiscal consolidation and growth initiatives. The reforms and structural agenda are progressing, although challenges remain, particularly in fuel pricing, JIRAMA reform, and political uncertainty. The IMF encourages continued efforts to enhance fiscal sustainability, financial sector development, and economic governance.