2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Madagascar_Second_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_84页_2mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 17/385 for the Republic of Madagascar

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 17/385 outlines the Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for the Republic of Madagascar and the Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The report details the economic developments, program performance, and policy discussions that took place during the review period. It concludes with the approval of a US$44.5 million disbursement under the ECF arrangement, which was initially approved on July 27, 2016.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Recovery and Stability

• Economic growth remained strong in 2017, with an estimated annual growth of over 4% in the first half of the year, despite natural disasters such as drought and cyclone.
• Inflation remained stable, rising from 7.0% to 8.6% in early 2017 due to food price increases, but then declining to 8.3% by September 2017.
• The real effective exchange rate appreciated by about 5% from January to October 2017 due to higher inflation compared to trading partners.
• The current account weakened in 2017 due to a trade deficit, but the overall external account remained strong due to net transfers and financial inflows.

Program Performance

• The quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets were met at end-June 2017.
• Seven out of nine structural benchmarks were achieved by mid-November 2017, with one benchmark delayed by three months.
• The primary balance excluding foreign-financed investment was positive in 2017 and is expected to remain so over the medium term.
• Net foreign assets and net domestic assets were observed well above program targets.
• The non-accumulation of new external arrears and ceilings on non-concessional external debt were maintained.

Policy Discussions

• The main policy focus was on creating fiscal space, promoting investment, maintaining stable inflation, and advancing economic governance and financial sector reforms.

Creating Fiscal Space

• The wage bill was higher than planned in 2017 due to forecasting errors and increased public sector expenditures.
• The primary balance is expected to remain positive in 2018, despite some financing pressures.
• Transfers to JIRAMA and Air Madagascar are expected to decrease significantly in 2018, with JIRAMA transfers falling to 0.5% of GDP and Air Madagascar transfers for one-off liabilities.
• The authorities plan to integrate medium-term expenditure frameworks into the 2018 budget, reduce ghost workers, and improve forecasting with IMF support.

Promoting Investment for Inclusive and Sustainable Growth

• The pace of public investment is slower than program targets, and the Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) highlighted the need for multi-year programming and improved coordination.
• A new Organization for the Coordination and Monitoring of Investments and their Financing (OCSIF) was established to improve coordination and detect bottlenecks.
• Legislative proposals for attracting private investment, such as special economic zones (SEZ) and the law on industrial development (LID), were submitted, but tax incentives raised concerns about cost-effectiveness and potential revenue losses.
• The authorities plan to review and limit the scope of these tax incentives in subsequent regulations.

Maintaining Stable Inflation

• The central bank has managed inflation through exchange rate flexibility, foreign exchange reserves accumulation, and partial sterilization of interventions.
• Inflation is expected to continue to fall as supply-side shocks subside and monetary policy remains prudent.
• The central bank may tighten liquidity and increase the policy rate if inflationary pressures arise.

Enhancing Economic Governance

• Anti-corruption reforms are a key priority, with new laws and frameworks being developed.
• The first quarterly statistics on anti-corruption legal cases will be published by the end of the year.
• A new anti-corruption center is expected to be operational in the capital by the end of 2017, with another planned for 2018.
• A more transparent asset declaration framework is to be introduced by January 2018.
• The law on National Public Establishments (EPNs) will be revised by end-June 2018 to enhance transparency and accountability.

Strengthening the Financial Sector

• The financial sector development is a priority, with a focus on financial inclusion and supervision.
• Mobile money services are growing rapidly and will be further supported by a modernized legal and regulatory framework.
• Supervision initiatives are underway to control financial risks and improve the legal framework for the financial sector.

Key Structural Reforms and Initiatives

• Anti-corruption legislation and AML/CFT laws are being strengthened.
• Public financial management (PFM) reforms are being implemented, including a three-year PFM action plan.
• The Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) will be conducted by the World Bank in 2018.
• The foreign exchange market is being developed, with IMF technical assistance ongoing.

Outlook and Risks

• The macroeconomic outlook remains positive, with growth expected to exceed 5% starting in 2018.
• Public investment scaling is expected to be more gradual due to capacity constraints.
• The plague outbreak poses some uncertainty but is currently limited in scope.
• The real effective exchange rate remains consistent with external sector fundamentals.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board approved the second review and US$44.5 million disbursement under the ECF arrangement, reflecting confidence in Madagascar's program implementation. The fiscal and structural performance has been strong, with progress made in several key areas, including anti-corruption, public financial management, and financial sector development. However, challenges remain in terms of investment scaling, fiscal sustainability, and ensuring the effectiveness of new tax incentives. Continued technical assistance and policy reforms are essential to achieving the program's long-term goals.