20160315-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2016.3.15_20页_1mb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (ERS Report, March 15, 2016)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors for 2016, based on updated data through January 2016. It covers production, trade, prices, and market dynamics across different categories.

Cattle/Beef

Key Points

• Export Share: U.S. beef exports are expected to account for 16% of total production in 2016, slightly higher than 2015, while dairy exports are forecast to decline to 17%, down from 18% in 2015.
• Weather and Pasture: Favorable weather and improved forage conditions in the first quarter of 2016 allowed cattle to remain on pasture longer, contributing to higher production.
• Feeder Cattle Market: Feeder cattle prices have declined significantly, with mid-150s prices for 750-800-pound steers. The market has seen a shift in feeding practices due to volatile prices and reduced profitability.
• Cattle Slaughter: Slaughter levels remain close to 2015 levels, with a slight increase in dairy cow slaughter and stable beef cow slaughter. This suggests potential herd expansion in the beef sector.
• Packer Behavior: Packers are hesitant to pay high prices for fed cattle due to weak margins, leading to reduced slaughter schedules and lower prices for wholesale boxed beef.

Trade Trends

• Imports: U.S. cattle imports are expected to decline further in 2016, with a forecast of 1.825 million head, down from previous estimates.
• Export Flows: The U.S. dollar's strength and reduced competitiveness of U.S. beef are expected to affect trade flows, though higher domestic production could support export interest.

Dairy

Key Points

• Export Share: Dairy exports are forecast to decline to 17% of total production on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis.
• Production Trends: Milk production in January 2016 was 17,730 million pounds, a 0.3% increase from January 2015. Cheese production was up 26 million pounds, and butter production was down 4 million pounds.
• Prices: Cheese prices are forecast to decrease slightly to $1.505–$1.565 per pound, while butter prices are expected to rise to $2.010–$2.100 per pound. All-milk prices are forecast at $14.95–$15.55 per cwt, down from $15.30–$16.00 per cwt.
• Imports: Dairy imports increased in January, with cheese and butterfat products seeing the largest gains. Imports are expected to rise by 1.1 billion pounds on a milk-fat basis and 0.2 billion pounds on a skim-solids basis.

Trade Trends

• Import Sources: Australia, the EU, and Canada are major sources of dairy imports, with the EU showing increased production and lower prices.
• Export Decline: Lower export expectations are attributed to reduced demand for whey and the U.S. dollar's strength, which makes U.S. dairy products less competitive internationally.

Pork/Hogs

Key Points

• Production: First-quarter commercial pork production is expected to be 6.3 billion pounds, a 2% increase from the previous year.
• Prices: Hog prices are trending seasonally upward, averaging $45–$46 per cwt in the first quarter, 6% below 2015 levels.
• Exchange Rates: The U.S. dollar's strength is a key determinant of pork trade flows, as it makes U.S. pork more expensive for foreign buyers, favoring imports from countries with weaker currencies.
• Imports: U.S. pork imports are expected to remain around 1.1 billion pounds, with Canada and the EU as major sources. Poland and Brazil have seen increased imports in January 2016.

Trade Trends

• Export Performance: U.S. pork exports in January 2016 were 10% higher than the previous year, but 14% lower than January 2014. Key export markets showed mixed performance, with declines in Mexico, Canada, and South Korea.
• Live Swine Imports: Live swine imports from Canada increased by 3% in January 2016 following the repeal of the Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) legislation.

Poultry

Key Points

• Production: First-quarter broiler production is forecast to increase to 10.1 billion pounds from 10.025 billion pounds, driven by strong production data.
• Stocks: Cold storage stocks for broiler meat are declining, with breast meat stocks reaching a high since 2003 and leg quarter stocks hitting a low since 2014.
• Prices: Wholesale prices for broiler meat are moving in different directions, with breast prices dropping and leg quarter prices rising in key markets.
• Turkey Production: Turkey meat production is forecast at 6.0 billion pounds, an increase of 65 million pounds from the previous estimate.

Trade Trends

• Exports: Broiler, turkey, and egg exports in January 2015 were down compared to the previous year. January 2016 turkey exports were 34 million pounds, down 35% from the previous year.
• Egg Production: Table egg production in January 2016 was 584 million dozen, a 7% decline due to a smaller flock and lower laying rates. First-quarter egg production is forecast at 1.7 billion dozen, 4% lower than the previous year.

Key Trends and Outlook

• Red Meat and Poultry: Export shares are expected to rise, driven by higher production and lower prices, which support export competitiveness.
• Dairy: Lower export shares are expected due to price differentials and increased global supply, while imports are forecast to rise.
• Pork: Seasonal price trends are expected to continue, with increased production and lower prices, but export volumes are likely to be affected by the U.S. dollar's strength.
• Poultry: Strong production data and declining cold storage stocks are expected to influence market dynamics, with mixed price trends across different products.

Tables and Data Sources

• Red Meat and Poultry Table: Released on March 29, 2016.
• Dairy Forecast Table: Released on March 29, 2016.
• Web Sites: Includes links to USDA data products on animal production and trade.

Conclusion

The U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors are expected to experience mixed trends in 2016. While production in most categories is forecast to increase, export shares may vary due to price fluctuations, exchange rates, and global market conditions. The report highlights the importance of weather, feed costs, and trade policies in shaping market outcomes.