20170718-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2017.07.18_22页_1mb

报告摘要

This report outlines the outlook for U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for 2017 and 2018, focusing on production, prices, and trade trends.

Per Capita Disappearance:
- Beef: Expected to increase by 1.3% to 57.9 pounds in 2018, driven by production growth and stronger imports.
- Pork: Per capita disappearance is projected to rise by 1.7% to 50.9 pounds, the highest since 2004, due to industry expansion and export growth.
- Poultry: Broiler per capita disappearance is expected to increase by 1.3% to 91.3 pounds, supported by production growth and modest export increases. Turkey per capita is forecast to rise by 1.1% to 17 pounds, despite a 7.8% increase in turkey exports.
- Lamb and Mutton: Per capita disappearance is expected to decline by 1.7% in 2018 due to a small production decrease and increased exports.

Production:
- 2017 commercial beef production is revised upward to 26.5 billion pounds, driven by higher slaughter volumes in the second and third quarters.
- 2018 production forecast is 2.2% higher than 2017.
Prices:
- Choice steer prices averaged $117-$121 per cwt in Q3 and $113-$121 in Q4.
- Feeder calf prices are expected to peak in Q3 at $152-$158 per cwt and decline in Q4.
Trade:
- Beef exports increased by 3% in May 2017, with strong gains in Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan, offsetting declines in Canada, South Korea, and Mexico.
- 2018 beef exports are forecast to rise by 35 million pounds to 2.9 billion pounds.
- Beef imports are expected to decrease in 2017 and 2018 due to higher domestic production and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Cattle Imports:
- Cattle imports increased by 21% in May 2017 to 159,000 head, primarily from Mexico.
- Cattle on feed increased, with those over 120 days surpassing April levels but still below the 5-year average.

Production:
- 2017 milk production is forecast at 216.3 billion pounds, down 0.4 billion pounds from the previous forecast.
- Milk per cow is expected to decrease to 23,020 pounds, due to slow yield growth and recent extreme heat affecting western regions.
Prices:
- 2017 all-milk price forecast is $17.65-$17.95 per cwt, down from $17.80-$18.20.
- Cheddar cheese prices are forecast to fall to $1.575-$1.605 per pound due to weak prices and high stocks.
- Butter prices are expected to rise to $2.365-$2.425 per pound, while dry whey and nonfat dry milk prices remain stable.
Exports and Imports:
- Cheese exports increased by 48% in May 2017, driven by competitive prices.
- Nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder exports were also strong, up 32%.
- May imports were lower than May 2016, with a significant drop in milk protein concentrate.

Production:
- Hog inventories and farrowing intentions in June indicate strong production growth in the second half of 2017 and into 2018.
- 2017 production is expected to rise to 6.3 billion pounds in Q3 and 7 billion pounds in Q4.
Prices:
- Live hog prices are forecast to increase by 6% in Q3 and 16% in Q4 compared to the same periods in 2016.
- 2018 pork production is expected to rise by 2%, with prices averaging $48-$52 per cwt in Q1.
Exports:
- Pork exports in May 2017 reached 515 million pounds, up 12% from May 2016.
- Mexico's share of U.S. pork exports increased to 30% from 28%, mainly due to fresh bone-in ham exports.
- Frozen ham exports to Mexico are less significant due to higher unit values in frozen form.

Prices:
- San Angelo Choice slaughter lamb prices rose to $153.46 per cwt in Q2, up nearly $15 from Q1.
- Monthly prices increased by over $20 between April and June due to thin markets and tight supplies.
- Prices are expected to weaken for the rest of the year as demand declines.
Production and Trade:
- 2017 lamb and mutton production is forecast to decrease by 10% to 35 million pounds.
- Exports are expected to increase by 7.8% in 2018, driven by market recovery after a sharp decline in 2015 due to disease issues.

Forecast Release Dates:
- Tables will be released on July 27, 2017.
- Next Outlook Report is scheduled for August 16, 2017.
Trade Dynamics:
- Beef exports are supported by higher production, lower prices, and a weaker U.S. dollar.
- The U.S.-China trade deal has reopened the Chinese market to U.S. beef, but initial gains may be limited due to market requirements.
Market Conditions:
- Thin markets and tight supplies have contributed to price volatility in lamb and mutton.
- Abundant dairy supplies and lower domestic demand have led to reduced milk and cheese prices.
Supply and Demand:
- Increased cattle slaughter and higher dressed weights suggest a growing supply of Choice beef.
- Pork production is expected to increase due to higher inventories and farrowing intentions.
- Turkey production is forecast to decrease in 2017 and 2018 due to reduced poult placements.