20171017-大华银行-Markets_Overview_4页_292kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (17 October 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of global economic and financial market developments, focusing on key economic indicators, currency movements, equity indices, and interest rates. It highlights major events and expectations for the upcoming data releases and market reactions.

Main Highlights

US Economic Docket: The September industrial production data is a key focus, with expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month (m/m) increase, reversing the August decline of 0.9%. Manufacturing is expected to rise by 0.2% m/m, following a 0.3% fall in August.
Eurozone: The October ZEW survey is due, with an expected improvement to 20 from 17 in September and 10 in August. Current conditions are projected to rise to 88.5 from 87.9. ECB speakers Vitor Constancio and Peter Praet are scheduled to address the market.
UK: The UK's CPI data is anticipated to show a 0.3% m/m increase and a 3.0% year-over-year (y/y) rise. BoE officials Mark Carney, David Ramsden, and Silvana Tenreyro are set to testify to the Treasury Select Committee.
Asia: Asian currencies remained stable ahead of China's 19th Party Congress, with the Asia Dollar Index (ADXY) slightly down to 107.90 and USD/CNY consolidating near 6.60. USD/SGD traded at 1.3525, with a neutral technical outlook for the next 1–3 weeks.

FX Market Overview

EUR/USD: Traded in a tight range with 1.1780 as the support level.
USD/JPY: Rose above the 112 figure due to reports of a possible US-North Korea meeting and Japan Post Bank equity purchases. Further support at 1.3475 and resistance at 1.3565 are noted.
USD/SGD: The spot rate is at 1.3525, currently trading 1.25% above the neutral SGD NEER policy band mid-point of 1.3695. A correction to 1.3475 is possible, with a rebound above 1.3565 indicating easing downside pressure.
3M Singapore Offered Rate (SOR): Inched up to 0.93%.

Equities Market Overview

US Major Indices: The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all hit record highs on Monday, with gains of 0.37%, 0.18%, and 0.28%, respectively.
European Markets: Mixed performance, with Spanish stocks under pressure due to political uncertainty. The UK market remained volatile due to Brexit-related news.

US Treasuries

Yields: Rose on Monday due to reports that President Trump favored John Taylor for Fed Chair and comments from Janet Yellen. The 2-year note yield reached 1.546%, the highest since November 2008. The 10-year yield ended around 2.31%.

Commodities

Oil Prices: Surged due to Iraqi forces reclaiming Kirkuk from Kurdish fighters, raising concerns over OPEC exports.
Gold: Held near the $1,300 level, supported by geopolitical tensions and weak US economic data.

Economic News & Data

China's Inflation: September PPI rose to +6.9% y/y from +6.3% in August. Core CPI also increased to +2.3% y/y from +2.2% y/y. This sets the stage for the September activity indicators, including industrial production, retail sales, and Q3 GDP growth, with a consensus forecast for a slight dip in Q3 GDP to 6.8% y/y from 6.9% y/y.
Singapore's NODX: Expected to moderate from the strong 17% y/y gain in August to about 13% y/y in September.
UK CPIH: Expected to rise to 0.3% m/m and 3.0% y/y.
US Empire Manufacturing: Unexpectedly rose to 30.2 from 24.4 in October, indicating a strong manufacturing sector.