80×30清洁电力标准：碳、成本和健康效益（英）-2021.7_30页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "An 80x30 Clean Electricity Standard: Carbon, Costs, and Health Benefits"

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of an illustrative 80x30 Clean Electricity Standard (CES) as part of the Clean Energy Futures (CEF) project. The goal is to evaluate the costs, carbon emissions reductions, and health benefits of transitioning the U.S. electricity sector to 80% clean energy by 2030 and 100% by 2040. The analysis highlights that such a transition would yield substantial benefits, both environmental and public health-related, while incurring relatively modest costs.

Main Policy Context

The Biden Administration aims for a 100% carbon-free power sector by 2035, with an 80% clean electricity target by 2030.
The reconciliation CES is a policy pathway that could be enacted through the budget reconciliation process, which allows for direct federal spending or taxing authority to incentivize clean energy investment.
The reconciliation CES would shift costs to the federal government and reduce electricity rates for consumers, as it would leverage federal investments to offset private sector costs.
The policy is designed to achieve 80% clean electricity by 2030 and 100% by 2040, with credit banking allowing for early compliance credits to be used in later years.

Key Policy Features

Credit banking accelerates emissions reductions and health benefits by enabling early over-compliance.
Partial crediting for natural gas is allowed up to 2040, based on emission rates.
The policy minimizes the energy cost burden on ratepayers by keeping electricity prices stable.
It is budget neutral after ten years and ensures equitable benefits across all U.S. regions.

Electricity Generation Outcomes

Solar and wind generation increase significantly, reaching 83% of total electricity generation by 2030.
Coal generation declines rapidly, nearly reaching zero by 2030.
Natural gas generation persists but is increasingly supplemented with carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Nuclear and hydropower remain at low levels, similar to the no-policy case.
Renewable builds occur in all 48 contiguous states, promoting economic development and environmental benefits.

Emissions Reductions

CO₂ emissions are estimated to be 80% below 2005 levels by 2030.
Nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and mercury (Hg) emissions decrease by 71%, 96%, and 96%, respectively, by 2030.
Emissions of these pollutants are strongly correlated with coal generation, which declines rapidly.
Ozone and PM₂.₅ levels also improve significantly, with reduced exposure across all racial and ethnic groups.

Air Quality and Health Benefits

The 80x30 CES leads to large air quality improvements and health benefits across all U.S. states.
PM₂.₅ exposure is projected to decrease by -0.19 μg/m³ in 2030 and -0.23 μg/m³ in 2050.
Ozone exposure is estimated to decrease by -0.42 ppb in 2030 and -0.67 ppb in 2050.
Premature deaths are estimated to be avoided at the county level, with 9,200 lives saved in 2030 and 17,000 in 2050.
Cumulative premature deaths avoided from 2020 to 2050 are estimated at 317,500.
The present value of health benefits is estimated at $1.13 trillion.

Costs and Net Benefits

The present value of climate benefits is $637 billion, and costs are estimated at $342 billion.
The net benefits of the 80x30 CES are $1.43 trillion over the 2020–2050 period.
System costs increase by 13% over the study period, with early costs being higher due to banking, but future costs being lower as banked credits are used.
The CEF project finds that the 80x30 CES has the largest total benefits, climate-related net benefits, and health benefits among the eight analyzed policies.

Policy Insights

Banking leads to earlier and larger emissions reductions and health benefits, though it extends the use of fossil fuels in later years.
Establishing a clean energy requirement in 2030 could achieve similar early benefits without banking.
Partial crediting for natural gas has modest impact on the generation mix when long-term targets are zero.
Small generators (<25 MW) significantly affect NOₓ emissions and public health outcomes. Excluding them may lead to increased emissions in some areas.

Conclusion

The 80x30 CES is a cost-effective and beneficial policy for achieving the Biden Administration’s clean electricity goals.
The net benefits are substantial, with $1.43 trillion in total benefits from 2020 to 2050.
The policy would prevent 317,500 premature deaths and improve air quality across all U.S. states.

About the Clean Energy Futures Project

The project is a multi-institutional collaboration involving Syracuse University, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Resources for the Future, and Georgia Institute of Technology.
It evaluates tradeoffs among electricity sector policies to support national climate and health goals.

Acknowledgements

IPM simulations were conducted by ICF.
The CEF team thanks Jonathan Buonocore for assistance with BenMAP software and health functions.
The project was funded by The JPB Foundation.

Appendix Highlights

The no-policy reference case uses 2019 electricity demand forecasts and 2018 technology cost estimates.
The Affordable Clean Energy Rule (ACE) focuses on heat rate improvements at coal plants.
The Updated Clean Power Plan (CPP) includes renewables, fuel-switching, and trading.
The Net-Zero Cap and Trade policy aims for 78% emissions reduction by 2035 and net-zero by 2050.
CES cases include options with and without banking, and are defined by carbon intensity benchmarks and clean energy targets.