国际能源署-G20国家的无碳电力-现状和前进方向(英)-2025_110页_5mb
报告摘要
Summary of Carbon-Free Electricity in G20 Countries
Core Content
This report, jointly produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEi), examines the current status and future prospects of carbon-free electricity in G20 countries. It aims to support the CFE Initiative proposed by the Republic of Korea in 2024, which seeks to accelerate the decarbonisation of the energy sector through technology-neutral approaches. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of installed capacities, generation mix, policy frameworks, and cost structures of carbon-free energy sources across G20 nations.
Main Viewpoints
- Decarbonisation and Electrification: Transitioning to carbon-free electricity and electrifying energy demand are critical for accelerating the shift to clean energy.
- Technology Neutrality: Carbon-free energy sources include solar PV, wind, nuclear, bioenergy, ocean, geothermal, hydropower, and hydrogen, with no single technology being universally recommended.
- Country-Specific Strategies: Each G20 country has distinct energy mixes, policies, and challenges, necessitating tailored approaches for expanding carbon-free energy.
- Policy Diversity: Countries employ a variety of mechanisms such as auctions, tax credits, feed-in tariffs, and financial incentives to support renewable energy deployment.
- Nuclear Energy: There is a wide range of approaches towards nuclear energy, from phasing it out to expanding it, depending on the country's energy strategy and political will.
- Carbon Trading Schemes: Some G20 countries have implemented carbon trading schemes, though the scope and pricing of these vary significantly.
Key Information
Installed Capacity and Generation Mix
- Installed Capacity: G20 countries have different shares of carbon-free energy sources, with nuclear, hydropower, and renewables playing key roles.
- Generation Mix: The actual generation mix differs from installed capacity due to the lower capacity factors of variable renewables like solar PV and wind. Dispatchable sources such as nuclear and hydropower are often used to balance the grid.
- Projected Growth by 2030: Renewable energy is expected to dominate the generation mix, with solar PV and wind leading the expansion. Hydropower will still be a significant contributor, though its share is projected to decline slightly.
Carbon-Neutrality and Renewable Energy Targets
| Country | Net Zero Target | Renewable Energy Target by 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 2050 | 20% RES |
| Australia | 2050 | 82% RES |
| Brazil | 2050 | 84% RES |
| Canada | 2050 | 90% RES |
| China | 2060 | 33% RES (18% without hydropower) |
| EU | 2050 | 42.5% RES (aspiration 45%) |
| France | 2050 | 54-60 GW solar PV; 33-35 GW onshore wind; 3.6 GW offshore wind |
| Germany | 2045 | 80% RES |
| India | 2070 | 50% non-fossil fuel capacity |
| Indonesia | 2060 | 19-21% RES |
| Italy | 2050 | 55% RES |
| Japan | 2050 | 36-38% RES |
| Korea | 2050 | 20% RES |
| Mexico | 2050 | 45% RES |
| Russia | 2060 | Double RES capacity |
| Saudi Arabia | 2060 | 130 GW RES capacity |
| South Africa | 2050 | 41% RES |
| Türkiye | 2053 | 50% RES |
| United Kingdom | 2050 | 100% decarbonised by 2035 |
| United States | 2050 | 100% decarbonised by 2035 |
Policy Overview
Most G20 countries have implemented renewable energy auctions, financial support mechanisms, tax credits, and low-interest loans to promote the deployment of carbon-free energy. Examples include:
- Argentina: Launched the RenMDI auction programme to support smaller-scale renewable projects, alongside RenovAr for large-scale projects.
- Australia: Introduced the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and Renewable Energy Zones (REZs), and is developing a framework for offshore wind and hydrogen export.
- Brazil: Uses RES auctions, favourable-interest loans, and net metering.
- China: Implements RES auctions, feed-in tariffs, and country PV pilots.
- India: Utilises auctions, distributed solar PV, and RES hybrid auctions.
- Mexico: Conducts RES auctions, clean energy certificate auctions, and net metering.
- South Africa: Has competitive tenders and feed-in tariffs for RES.
- Türkiye: Implements RES auctions (YEKA) and feed-in tariff support (YEKDEM).
- United Kingdom: Uses contracts for difference (CfDs) and PPAs, with financial support for individuals and research.
Nuclear Energy Policy
- Phasing In: Türkiye
- Keeping Steady: Japan
- Expanding: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, France, India, Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, United Kingdom, United States
- Considering: Australia, Indonesia, Italy, Saudi Arabia
- Phasing Out: Germany
Carbon Trading Schemes
| Country | Carbon Trading Scheme Introduced | Coverage of Total GHG Emissions |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Yes | Low |
| Australia | No | None |
| Brazil | No | None |
| Canada | Yes | High |
| China | Yes | Medium |
| France | Yes | Medium |
| Germany | Yes | High |
| India | Yes | Low |
| Indonesia | Yes | Low |
| Italy | Yes | Medium |
| Japan | Yes | High |
| Korea | Yes | High |
| Mexico | Yes | Medium |
| Russia | No | None |
| Saudi Arabia | No | None |
| South Africa | Yes | High |
| Türkiye | No | None |
| United Kingdom | Yes | Medium |
| United States | Yes | Low |
Conclusion
The report highlights the diversity in approaches to carbon-free energy across G20 countries, emphasizing the need for tailored policies that reflect each nation's unique circumstances. It outlines both cluster-specific and cross-cluster policy recommendations to enhance the deployment of carbon-free electricity, focusing on improving policy frameworks, fostering international collaboration, and addressing technical and economic barriers to renewable energy integration. The role of nuclear energy and carbon trading schemes is also discussed, showing their varying impacts on energy security and sustainability.
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