20230709-华泰期货-果蔬品周报_天气异动提供驱动_果蔬淡季逆市反弹_10页_826kb

Apple Market Update

Apple market atmosphere weakened this week with stable现货 prices, driven by East strong and West weak trends. Shandong saw reduced supply flow and slower sales, while Shaanxi had rising rotten fruit issues leading to price declines in some areas. Distribution markets are average due to seasonal lull and competition from emerging fruits. Inventory remains low, supporting prices short-term; watch for early West prices.

Strategy: Neutral震荡. Risks include global recession and reduced consumer demand lowering prices downward.

Red Date Market Update

Red Date market faces uncertainty as physiological fall continues; 2023 yield depends on weather and fruit retention. Weak tree performance in some areas suggests potential reduced output, while new season growth is delayed. Inventory is high in Hebei and warehouses, hindering de-stocking amid seasonal fruit competition. Futures support far-month contracts through weather prospects.

Strategy: Focus on anti-hedge (反套). Risks include government price policies, extreme weather (hot/dry), global recession, and negative demand forecasts.