20231106-国盛证券-固定收益定期_当前债市的边际变化_6页_554kb

Bond Market Summary: Key Developments as of November 6, 2023

After a month-end funding tightening, the bond market showed strength this week due to easing liquidity conditions. The R007 rate dropped below 1.9%, returning to the policy interest rate, and triggered a broad decline in bond yields. For instance, the 10-year Treasury rate fell by 52bps to 2.66%, while national development bonds dropped by 32bps to 2.72%. High-yield bonds like AAA-Secondary Capital Bonds descended more sharply, with rates falling 96bps and 79bps for 3- and 5-year issues, respectively.

The market improvements stem from reduced funding demand, as the repayment phase of refinancing bonds releases liquidity, and weak实体经济融资 indicated by low 6-month bill rates (at 1.09%). Future supply is expected to rise, with net financing of about 19 trillion yuan in November-December, supported by increased Treasury issuance, potentially offset by PBOC's reserve requirement rate cuts to maintain liquidity stability. However, structural gaps in large banks' liquidity and curve normalization contribute to ongoing uncertainty, keeping yield prospects for bonds in a sideways downtrend but with potential for trends larger increases.

Risk factors: Unanticipated policy shifts, data inaccuracies, and unforeseen economic developments may alter outlooks.