20181204-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_6页_196kb

Market Summary

Core Content

The document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets, including key market indicators, technical analysis, IPO briefs, stock connect statistics, actively traded stocks, short sell data, and economic calendars. It highlights the impact of the U.S.-China trade truce on market sentiment and outlines the performance of major indices and stocks.

Main Market Indicators

• Hang Seng Index (HSI):

  • Closed at 27,182 on 3 Dec, up +675 from 30 Nov.
  • Market turnover was HK$129.6 billion on 3 Dec.
  • The HSI is expected to trade between 26,900-27,300 today.
  • HSCEI closed at 10,882, up +260 from 30 Nov.
  • Market sentiment is optimistic due to the U.S.-China trade truce, but short-term consolidation is expected.

• HSI Technical Indicators:

  • Opened above 100-day SMA.
  • MACD histogram remains in positive territory.
  • Primary support at 27,001, primary resistance at 27,500.
  • Technical trend is positive.

• HSCEI Technical Indicators:

  • 14-day RSI at 63.9.
  • Primary support at 10,620, primary resistance at 11,000.
  • Technical trend is positive.

IPO Briefs

• Ever Sunshine Lifestyle Services Group (1995.HK):

  • Property management services provider in China.
  • Revenue from residential properties accounts for 70% of total revenue.
  • Revenue model is lump sum, which may limit profit margins if costs exceed expectations.
  • Revenue from third-party developers increased from <4% in FY2015 to >30% in 1H2018.
  • P/E ratio is 28.25-40.8X, P/B ratio is 3X.
  • Rating: Neutral.

• Luzhou City Commercial Bank (1983.HK):

  • Largest commercial bank in Luzhou based on total assets.
  • Shares are offered at HK$3.15-3.40, with a total offer size of HK$1,719-1,856 million.
  • P/B ratio is 1.02-1.08X, higher than most city commercial banks in Hong Kong.
  • Rating: Neutral.

Stock Connect Statistics

• SH-HK Connect:

  • Balance: 43.10 billion RMB.
  • As % of quota: 82.9%.

• SZ-HK Connect:

  • Balance: 48.28 billion RMB.
  • As % of quota: 92.9%.

• Combined Southbound:

  • Balance: 85.24 billion RMB.
  • As % of quota: 101.5%.

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks

• HSI Southbound:

  • TENCENT (700.HK): Turnover 603.89 billion HKD.
  • SUNAC (1918.HK): Turnover 288.49 billion HKD.
  • GEELY AUTO (175.HK): Turnover 249.05 billion HKD.
  • SINO BIOPHARM (1177.HK): Turnover 193.15 billion HKD.
  • HKEX (388.HK): Turnover 174.10 billion HKD.
  • CCB (939.HK): Turnover 173.43 billion HKD.
  • CHINA LIFE (2628.HK): Turnover 168.52 billion HKD.
  • CSPC PHARMA (1093.HK): Turnover 150.56 billion HKD.
  • HTSC (6886.HK): Turnover 141.35 billion HKD.
  • CM BANK (3968.HK): Turnover 139.46 billion HKD.

• SZ-HK Connect Southbound:

  • ZTE (763.HK): Turnover 372.65 billion HKD.
  • TENCENT (700.HK): Turnover 290.50 billion HKD.
  • BYD COMPANY (1211.HK): Turnover 182.29 billion HKD.
  • SUNAC (1918.HK): Turnover 176.56 billion HKD.
  • SUNNY OPTICAL (2382.HK): Turnover 92.21 billion HKD.
  • CONCH CEMENT (914.HK): Turnover 87.34 billion HKD.
  • CHINA SHENHUA (1088.HK): Turnover 85.88 billion HKD.
  • CM BANK (3968.HK): Turnover 82.98 billion HKD.
  • GEELY AUTO (175.HK): Turnover 82.14 billion HKD.
  • GF SEC (1776.HK): Turnover 74.28 billion HKD.

Short Sell Stocks

• TENCENT (00700.HK): Short sell 2.08 billion HKD, short sell ratio 18.21%.
• CCB (00939.HK): Short sell 1.12 billion HKD, short sell ratio 38.53%.
• PING AN (02318.HK): Short sell 1.12 billion HKD, short sell ratio 25.08%.
• ISHARES A50 (02823.HK): Short sell 957.23 million HKD, short sell ratio 58.82%.
• CSOP A50 ETF (02822.HK): Short sell 677.05 million HKD, short sell ratio 58.83%.
• HSCEI ETF (02828.HK): Short sell 611.04 million HKD, short sell ratio 71.74%.
• SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK): Short sell 545.52 million HKD, short sell ratio 37.59%.
• ICBC (01398.HK): Short sell 481.81 million HKD, short sell ratio 28.68%.
• CM BANK (03968.HK): Short sell 476.81 million HKD, short sell ratio 29.55%.
• SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK): Short sell 448.22 million HKD, short sell ratio 28.12%.

Economic Calendars

• Mon: U.S. Nov. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Prior: 55.4), Euro Zone Nov. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Prior: 51.5).
• Tue: Euro Zone Oct. CPI YoY (Prior: 4.5%).
• Wed: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book.
• Thur: U.S. Oct. Trade Balance (Prior: -$54.0B), China Nov. Foreign Reserves USD (Announce on Dec 6-7, Prior: $3,053.10B).
• Fri: U.S. Nov. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Prior: 205K), U.S. Nov. Unemployment Rate (Prior: 3.7%), China Nov. Trade Balance USD (Announce on Dec 7-8, Prior: $34.02B), China Nov. Imports USD YoY (Prior: 21.4%), China Nov. Exports USD YoY (Prior: 15.6%), China Nov. Foreign Direct Investment YoY (Announce on Dec 7-8, Prior: 7.2%).
• Sat: China Nov. PPI YoY (Prior: 3.3%), China Nov. CPI YoY (Prior: 2.5%).

Summary of Key Information

• Market Sentiment: Positive due to the U.S.-China trade truce, but Hong Kong blue chips fell in the U.S. ADR market, leading to expected consolidation.
• HSI and HSCEI Performance: Both indices showed positive movement, with HSI rising +675 and HSCEI +260.
• IPO Highlights: Ever Sunshine Lifestyle Services Group and Luzhou City Commercial Bank are highlighted, with neutral ratings due to various financial and market risks.
• Stock Activity: TENCENT and other major stocks are among the most actively traded, with high turnover and significant short selling.
• Economic Outlook: October retail sales in Hong Kong improved, but November performance is not expected to be optimistic. Economic indicators such as trade balances and CPI data are due to be released.