20171018-USDA-Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_22页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Economic Research Service Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (October 18, 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for 2017 and 2018, highlighting trends, forecasts, and key factors influencing prices and production.

Cattle/Beef

Key Trends and Forecasts

Carcass Weights: Steer slaughter weights tend to increase in late spring and decline in late fall and early spring. The 2017 weights are lower than 2016 due to aggressive marketing by feedlots and packers, but remain above the 10-year average.
Production: 2017 commercial beef production is forecast at 26.6 billion pounds, a marginal decrease from last month. 2018 production is expected to rise slightly to 27.3 billion pounds due to heavier fed cattle weights.
Feeder Calf Prices: Feeder calf prices have increased, with medium-frame steers in Oklahoma City averaging $148.12 per cwt in Q3, up $7.48 from the same period in 2016. Fourth-quarter prices are forecast at $143.00-$147.00/cwt.
Exports: U.S. beef exports for 2017 are forecast at 2.83 billion pounds, up 50 million pounds from last month. This is driven by strong demand from major markets like Japan, where frozen beef safeguards have led to increased chilled beef purchases.
Imports: Beef imports in 2017 are forecast at 2.96 billion pounds, up from the previous month. Cattle imports are also expected to increase, with 1.82 million head in 2017 and 1.92 million in 2018, due to higher domestic supplies and increased demand from Canada and Mexico.

Dairy

Key Trends and Forecasts

Milk Production: Milk production in August 2017 was up 2.0% year-over-year to 18.050 million pounds. The 2017 milk production forecast is now 216.2 billion pounds, up 0.2 billion pounds from last month.
Prices:
- All-Milk Price: Forecast at $17.75-$17.85 per cwt for 2017, unchanged from the previous forecast. For 2018, it is forecast at $17.45-$18.35 per cwt, a slight decrease from last month.
- Cheese Prices: Raised to $1.625-$1.635 per pound for the year, due to strong domestic prices.
- Butter Prices: Lowered to $2.335-$2.365 per pound, influenced by recent price declines and higher milk production.
- Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM) and Dry Whey Prices: Both are forecast to decline for 2018, with NDM at $0.815-$0.885 per pound and dry whey at $0.380-$0.410 per pound.
Exports: 2017 dairy exports on a milk-fat basis are forecast at 9.5 billion pounds, up 0.3 billion pounds from last month. Skim-solids exports are forecast at 40.9 billion pounds.
Imports: 2017 dairy imports on a milk-fat basis are forecast at 6.2 billion pounds, up from last month. Skim-solids imports are forecast at 6.3 billion pounds.
Ending Stocks: 2017 ending stocks on a milk-fat basis are forecast at 13.0 billion pounds, while on a skim-solids basis, they are forecast at 11.1 billion pounds.

Pork/Hogs

Key Trends and Forecasts

Production: The September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicates record-high hog numbers, leading to increased pork production. 2017 pork production is forecast at 25.8 billion pounds, with a 3.6% increase in Q1 and 5.4% in Q3.
Prices: Hog prices have declined significantly in recent months, with Q3 2017 prices averaging $44-$48 per cwt, 17% below Q3 2016. This is attributed to higher supply and increased slaughter capacity.
Exports: Pork exports are expected to increase in 2018, with 1.5 billion pounds forecast for Q1, up 2.3% from 2017. Exports are also expected to rise in Q3 and Q4, driven by the availability of pork at lower prices.
Imports: Pork imports are forecast to remain stable in 2018, with a slight increase in Q1 and Q2. The report highlights the impact of increased slaughter capacity on hog prices and market dynamics.

Poultry

Key Trends and Forecasts

Production: Broiler production is forecast to increase due to strong slaughter rates and solid bird availability.
Egg Prices: Egg prices are expected to remain elevated for the remainder of 2017, surpassing prior expectations.
Turkey Production: 2017 turkey production is forecast at 6.008 billion pounds, an increase of 10 million pounds. 2018 production is expected to decrease by 40 million pounds to 6.140 billion pounds, due to declining hatchery placements in response to lower prices.