2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Malawi_Ninth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Waivers_for_Nonobservance_of_Performance_Criteria_94页_2mb

IMF Country Report No. 17/183: Malawi's Ninth Review Under the ECF Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the Ninth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Malawi, which was approved in 2012. It includes a Press Release, Staff Report, and Statement by the Executive Director, and discusses the economic performance, policy adjustments, and requests for waivers due to non-observance of performance criteria.

The review was completed on June 21, 2017, with the IMF Executive Board approving a disbursement of US$26.9 million (equivalent to SDR 19.5 million), bringing total disbursements under the ECF arrangement to SDR 138.8 million (US$191.4 million). The review also included the approval of waivers for missed performance criteria, particularly related to net domestic assets (NDA), net domestic financing (NDF), and net international reserves (NIR).

Main Issues and Key Points

1. Economic Context and Performance

• Malawi faced two consecutive years of severe weather shocks, including a worst drought in history (2016), which reduced maize production by 42% and placed 6.7 million people (40% of the population) at risk of food insecurity.
• The IMF approved an augmentation of access (25% of quota, US$49.2 million) in 2016 to address the balance of payments needs caused by the humanitarian crisis.
• The humanitarian relief efforts were successful, with US$285 million provided to the vulnerable population.
• Real GDP growth in 2016 fell to 2.3%, the lowest since 2014, due to the drought and related economic disruptions.
• Annual inflation declined from 21.7% in 2016 to 14.5% in 2017, largely due to monetary policy adjustments and stabilization of maize prices.

2. Performance Criteria and Missed Targets

• The end-June 2016 performance criteria (PCs) were not met due to revenue shortfalls, increased central bank financing, and lower-than-expected export revenues.
• The Executive Board extended the ECF arrangement by 6 months to allow the authorities to address the slippages and complete the review.
• PFM structural benchmarks were also missed, but progress was made in recent months, including strengthening commitment controls and reconciling government accounts.

3. Policy Discussions and Reforms

• Policy focus was on maintaining tight fiscal and monetary policies to support macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.
• Key policy areas included:
  • Maintaining a prudent fiscal policy to reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio and improve public spending efficiency.
  • Accelerating PFM reforms to restore donor confidence and ensure better fiscal management.
  • Implementing a tight monetary policy to keep inflation on a downward trend.
  • Enhancing financial sector stability by improving prudential norms, AML/CFT compliance, and reducing non-performing loans (NPLs).
  • Strengthening creditor rights and streamlining judicial processes to improve loan recovery.

4. Economic Outlook and Risks

• Real GDP growth is projected to rise to 4.5% in 2017, and to 5.5% over the medium term, assuming a recovery in agriculture, construction, and wholesale and retail sectors.
• Inflation is expected to continue its downward trend, reaching single digits by 2018, provided weather conditions improve and fiscal and monetary policies remain tight.
• The external current account deficit is projected to narrow in 2017 due to a rebound in exports and decline in maize imports.
• Downside risks include:
  • Continued vulnerability to weather shocks.
  • Slow disinflation could lead to wage-price cycles.
  • Policy slippages may increase, especially in the lead-up to the 2019 elections.
  • Weak credit growth and infrastructure constraints could limit economic resilience.

5. Fiscal and Monetary Developments

• Fiscal deficit in FY2015/16 was 6.4% of GDP, 0.25 percentage points higher than the programmed level.
• Revenue collection outperformed projections by 0.5% of GDP in the first half of FY2016/17, due to new tax measures (e.g., eliminating VAT exemptions).
• Monetary policy was effective in aligning short-term interest rates with the policy rate, and interest rate cuts in 2016 and 2017 helped reduce non-food inflation.
• The kwacha depreciated by 27% in nominal terms and 14% in real terms in 2016, but remained stable by mid-2017, maintaining reserve cover at about 3 months of imports.

Key Information and Recommendations

• The ECF program aims to achieve macroeconomic stability, growth, economic diversification, and poverty reduction.
• Donor assistance has been affected by the cashgate scandal, and revenue mobilization and donor re-engagement are crucial for sustainable financing.
• Structural reforms have been implemented, including:
  • PFM reforms to improve fiscal transparency and public accountability.
  • Monetary and financial sector reforms to enhance stability and resilience.
• The financial sector is vulnerable, with NPLs increasing to 17% in 2016. The RBM is monitoring two problem banks and has initiated recapitalization and restructuring measures.

Conclusion

The IMF's review concluded that Malawi has made progress in addressing the humanitarian crisis and economic challenges, but continued vigilance is needed to maintain macroeconomic stability and achieve sustainable growth. The program's success hinges on consistent fiscal and monetary discipline, effective implementation of structural reforms, and donor support. The waivers granted by the IMF Executive Board reflect the challenges faced and the need for continued policy focus to meet long-term development goals.