2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Burundi_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_64页_1016kb

BURUNDI: FOURTH REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY ARRANGEMENT

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the fourth review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Burundi, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in February 2014. It includes the Staff Report, Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), and Press Release, along with supporting documents such as the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU). The report provides an assessment of economic developments, program implementation, and policy discussions, emphasizing the need for continued reform and fiscal discipline in the face of upcoming elections and external economic challenges.

Key Issues

1. Program Implementation

• The ECF arrangement was approved in January 2012 with a total access of 39% of quota (SDR 30 million).
• The first, second, and third reviews were completed in 2012, 2013, and 2013, respectively.
• Fourth review was successfully completed, with all performance criteria and indicative targets met by September 2013.
• Structural reforms have made satisfactory progress, including streamlining customs procedures and establishing a coordination committee between the central bank and the ministry of finance.

2. Economic Outlook and Risks

• The macroeconomic outlook remains difficult, especially due to lower international coffee prices and a narrow export base.
• Inflation outlook is favorable in 2014, assuming no poor harvests, due to lower projected food and fuel prices.
• Key risks include:
  • Wavering program ownership and expenditure pressures in the lead-up to the 2015 elections.
  • Slippages in structural reforms could jeopardize the macroeconomic outlook.
  • Political business cycles may lead to expansionary fiscal policies before elections, increasing risks of fiscal slippages.

3. Staff Recommendations

• The staff recommends completing the fourth review and setting new performance and indicative criteria for September 2014.
• Disbursement of SDR 5 million is approved.
• Fiscal buffers should be built to address potential election-related spending pressures.
• Further revenue collection efforts are needed to maintain fiscal stability.

Main Policy Discussions

A. Recommittal to Revenue Mobilization

• Swift corrective measures in July 2013 helped restore the program to track.
• Revenue collections increased by 6% y-o-y in 2013, outperforming program targets.
• Budget support has declined from 5% of GDP in 2010 to 2% in 2014.
• Technical assistance recommendations on revenue administration are emphasized, including:
  • Strengthening compliance and tax administration capacity.
  • Collecting tax arrears.
  • Rationalizing discretionary exemptions.
  • Adopting a more sustainable petroleum pricing formula.

B. Strengthening Public Financial Management (PFM) Reforms

• Progress has been made in implementing the PFM strategy developed in 2012.
• Expenditure control and accounting systems are still weak, leading to inefficiencies.
• 13 expenditure controllers have been nominated and trained, but resources and IFMIS connectivity remain a challenge.
• Treasury cash flow plans and regular coordination between the central bank and the ministry of finance are in place.
• PFM reforms need to be strengthened to ensure effective budget execution and reduced extra-budgetary spending.

C. Safeguarding Debt Sustainability

• Debt sustainability is a key concern, with two indicators still breaching thresholds in the baseline scenario.
• External debt-to-GDP and debt-to-government revenue ratios have improved and are now below thresholds.
• The IMF and World Bank have conducted a Debt Sustainability Analysis, indicating limited borrowing space and the need for highly concessional loans.
• A quarterly debt report and TA missions are planned to improve debt management and legal frameworks.
• Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are being supported through the World Bank's IFC.

D. Maintaining Price Stability and Facilitating External Adjustment

• Monetary policy aims to stabilize inflation expectations.
• The central bank reduced its policy rate by 100 basis points since May 2013, helping private sector credit expansion.
• Exchange rate flexibility is crucial for external adjustment and international reserve management.
• The managed float regime is being pursued within the East African Community (EAC) framework.
• Central bank interventions aim to smooth exchange rate volatility.

E. Safeguarding Financial Sector Soundness

• Domestic liquidity improved following 2012 shortages, driven by coffee export revenues, donor inflows, and regional bank participation.
• NPLs have increased, reflecting the impact of food and fuel shocks.
• The central bank has taken steps to improve financial stability, including:
  • Harmonizing NPL definitions with international standards.
  • Restructuring supervision to include financial stability functions.
  • Enhancing risk-based supervision and surveillance of pan-African banks.
  • Migration to IFRS is underway.

F. Other Macro-Critical Reforms

• Economic vulnerability persists due to narrow exports and heavy donor reliance.
• Privatization law has been adopted, which will boost coffee exports through the third round of bids for washing stations.
• Electricity access remains low, with less than 5% of the population connected, despite an increase from 15MW to 55MW since 2012.
• Business environment improvements are needed to attract foreign direct investment.
• EAC integration offers opportunities for monetary and fiscal harmonization, trade, and employment growth.

Key Documents and Supporting Information

• Staff Report: Completed on February 14, 2014, based on discussions with Burundi officials ending on December 13, 2013.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis: Prepared by the IMF and World Bank, highlighting debt risks and improvements.
• Press Release: Announced the approval of the fourth review and disbursement of SDR 5 million.
• Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding are separately released and included in the Staff Report.

Conclusion

The fourth review of Burundi's ECF arrangement confirms satisfactory progress in program implementation and structural reforms, but key risks remain, particularly related to fiscal sustainability and political pressures ahead of the 2015 elections. The IMF staff encourages fiscal discipline, revenue mobilization, and debt management to ensure long-term macroeconomic stability. Continued technical assistance and reform efforts are essential for sustained growth and poverty reduction.