20240628-国元证券-通信行业2024年半年度策略_聚焦算力_拥抱AI大时代_18页_2mb

Summary of Communication Industry 2024 H1 Strategy Report

Key Points

In 2024H1, the communication industry demonstrated strong performance with a 45% increase in revenue and 75% growth in net profit, outpacing the overall industrial average. AI hardware remains a core growth driver, attracting significant investment from active equity funds.

Computing Hardware Demand

The demand for computational hardware, particularly optical modules, continues to grow due to the rise of AI applications. Higher data processing requirements drive the need for enhanced computational capabilities. The IB protocol offers low latency and high performance for AI training, while RoCE provides better openness and cost-effectiveness for inference applications.

Telecommunications Operators

Telecom operators are shifting capital expenditure toward computing resources, boosting dividend yields. 5G infrastructure expansion has entered the later stages, leading to reduced spending on wireless networks.

Internet of Things (IoT)

Global cellular IoT module shipments rebounded with a 7% increase in Q1 2024. The "Car- Road- Cloud" policy is expected to accelerate growth in automotive IoT applications.

Satellite Communications

Low-orbit satellite deployment continues with multiple constellations planned, including G60 and Honghu-3 projects. These systems aim to provide global internet connectivity.

Fiber Optic Cables

Fiber optic demand is surging, particularly G654E type cables driven by the "East Data West Compute" initiative. China Mobile's recent procurement represents the highest volume in recent history.

Investment Recommendations

Maintain ratings with a focus on optical modules, switches, and telecommunications operators. Key recommendations include monitoring component suppliers and closely following 5G and AI infrastructure developments.

Risk Factors

The industry faces risks from increased competition, slower-than-expected technological adoption, international trade tensions, and macroeconomic fluctuations.

This summary highlights the main trends and investment considerations in the communication industry for 2024.