20250324-招银国际-翰森制药-03692.HK-Overseas_out-licensing_as_a_sustainable_profit_driver_5页_1mb

Hansoh Pharma (3692 HK) Summary

Core Content

Hansoh Pharma (3692 HK) reported FY24 results that were in line with expectations, with revenue increasing by 21.3% YoY to RMB12.26bn and attributable net income rising by 33.4% to RMB4.37bn. Product sales amounted to RMB10.69bn, up 13.7% YoY, while innovative drug sales (excluding collaboration revenue) grew by 28.2% to RMB7.9bn. The company is expected to surpass RMB10.0bn in innovative drug sales in FY25E, marking a growth of over 25% YoY.

The company has improved cost efficiency, with SG&A as a percentage of product sales dropping to 42% from 45% in FY23. R&D costs increased by 29% YoY to RMB2.70bn, reflecting the company's ongoing investment in innovation. Hansoh has also maintained a consistent increase in its dividend payout, with the payout ratio rising to 42.5% in FY24 from 35% in FY23. The analysts expect the payout ratio to remain stable in FY25E and beyond.

Key Financial Highlights

• Revenue (RMB mn):

  • FY23A: 10,104
  • FY24A: 12,261
  • FY25E: 13,247
  • FY26E: 14,482
  • FY27E: 17,014
  • YoY growth: 7.7%, 21.3%, 8.0%, 9.3%, 17.5%

• Net Profit (RMB mn):

  • FY23A: 3,277.5
  • FY24A: 4,371.8
  • FY25E: 4,274.0
  • FY26E: 4,280.1
  • FY27E: 5,355.6
  • YoY growth: 26.9%, 33.4%, -2.2%, 0.1%, 25.1%

• EPS (RMB):

  • FY23A: 0.74
  • FY24A: 0.74
  • FY25E: 0.72
  • FY26E: 0.72
  • FY27E: 0.90

• P/E Ratio (x):

  • FY23A: 33.9
  • FY24A: 25.4
  • FY25E: 26.0
  • FY26E: 26.0
  • FY27E: 20.8

• R&D Expenses (RMB mn):

  • FY23A: 2,702
  • FY24A: 2,984
  • FY25E: 3,267
  • FY26E: 3,620
  • FY27E: 3,620

• Dividend Payout Ratio: Increased from 35% in FY23 to 42.5% in FY24.

Main Points

• Innovative Drug Growth: Hansoh's innovative drug sales are on a strong growth trajectory, with the company expecting to exceed RMB10.0bn in FY25E.
• Cost Efficiency: Improved SG&A efficiency and increased R&D investment indicate a focus on both cost management and innovation.
• Overseas Out-Licensing: Hansoh has successfully out-licensed several assets, including two ADCs to GSK and an oral small molecule GLP-1R agonist to MSD, positioning the company for sustainable profit growth.
• Pipeline Development: The company has advanced multiple molecules into clinical trials, including a 4th-gen EGFR-TKI, GLP-1 oral drug, and various ADCs, which could enhance its market position in the future.
• Valuation: The DCF-based target price is maintained at HK$25.24, with a WACC of 8.52% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0%. The company's equity value is estimated at RMB139,328 million.
• Analyst Recommendation: Maintain BUY, with a 25.6% upside from the current price of HK$20.10.

Key Assets and Pipeline

• Aumolertinib: A key product in the EGFR-TKI market, showing 29% YoY growth in FY24. It is expected to reach RMB6.0bn in sales by 2025 and over RMB8.0bn at peak.
• HS-20093 (B7-H3 ADC): In Ph3 trial for 2L SCLC, with GSK planning global pivotal trials by 4Q25.
• HS-20089 (B7-H4 ADC): In Ph3 trial for ovarian cancer, with global Ph1/2 trials ongoing and pivotal trials planned for 2026.
• HS-20094 (GLP-1/GIP dual agonist): In Ph3 trials for obesity, with potential approval expected in 2027.
• Other In-Clinic Molecules: 4th-gen EGFR-TKI, GLP-1 oral drug, CDH6 ADC, and CDH17 ADC, with plans to advance additional ADCs.

Financial Performance

• Gross Profit Margin: Maintained at around 90.6% to 90.9% across the forecast period.
• Net Margin: Expected to remain stable or improve slightly, with FY25E at 32.26% and FY27E at 31.48%.
• ROE: Projected to be around 14.3% to 15.1% in the forecast period.
• Current Ratio: Improved significantly, from 9.9 in FY22A to 12.9 in FY27E, indicating strong liquidity.

Analysts and Contact

• Analysts: Jill WU, CFA and Andy WANG.
• Contact Information:
  • Jill WU: (852) 3900 0842 | jillwu@cmbi.com.hk
  • Andy WANG: (852) 3657 6288 | andywang@cmbi.com.hk

Risk and Disclaimer

• The report contains forward-looking statements and is based on assumptions that may not materialize.
• CMBIGM provides general information and does not offer personalized investment advice.
• Investors are advised to consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
• The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities and is intended solely for major US institutional investors in the United States.