acca-全球经济状况调查：2021年第2季度（英）-2021.7_20页_1mb

报告摘要

ACCA & IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey Summary (Q2 2021)

Core Content

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), conducted by ACCA (Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants), is the largest regular economic survey of accountants worldwide. It provides insights into economic activity, confidence, and inflation expectations, using data from over 1,100 responses, including more than 100 CFOs.

Main Views

1. Global Economic Outlook

The Q2 GECS indicates strong global economic growth in the second half of 2021.
Confidence remains high, slightly slipping from a record high in Q1 but still robust.
Global GDP growth for 2021 is expected to be around 6%, a sharp rebound from the 3.5% decline in 2020.
Advanced economies (US, UK, Eurozone) are recovering more quickly than emerging markets (EMs) due to better vaccine progress and stronger fiscal support.
Housing markets are a key driver of recovery, with house prices rising in many countries, including the UK, US, and Eurozone.

2. Regional Analysis

North America

Confidence remained high, with orders and employment indices at record highs.
US fiscal stimulus and vaccine progress are key drivers of recovery.
Strong GDP growth is expected for the year, with the second quarter already close to the 7% annual rate.

Asia-Pacific

Confidence dropped, but orders increased to their highest level in over three years.
Export demand is driving the recovery, but concerns over rising infections and slow vaccination are affecting domestic activity.

Western Europe

Confidence and orders saw the biggest increases in the survey's history.
EU vaccination rollout and relaxation of social distancing are contributing to a robust economic rebound.
Eurozone GDP growth is projected at 4.5%, with exports playing a significant role.

Middle East

Confidence and activity indicators improved slightly.
Oil prices have recovered, and vaccination progress in some countries (e.g., Israel, UAE, Bahrain) is helping to stabilize the economy.

South Asia

Confidence and orders both declined, with India being a major factor due to surges in infections and slow vaccination.
The legacy of the pandemic may lead to extreme poverty for tens of millions in the region.

Africa

Confidence and orders edged lower, with limited economic rebound.
A third wave of infections and negligible vaccination progress are hampering recovery.
Only commodity exporters may see growth due to rising prices and demand.

3. Inflation and Housing Markets

Housing markets are supporting economic recovery by boosting consumer spending.
Rising house prices are linked to lower interest rates and government support during the pandemic.
Inflation expectations are rising globally, with a consensus of up to 3 percentage points increase over the next few years.
Rent growth is closely tied to house price inflation and could push US inflation up by 0.5 percentage points if it aligns with rising prices.

4. Divergence Between Advanced and Emerging Markets

Advanced economies are recovering faster due to vaccine progress, fiscal support, and strong housing markets.
Emerging markets are lagging due to slow vaccination, limited fiscal support, and weaker balance sheets.
There is a risk of long-term economic scarring for EMs, while advanced economies are expected to recover with minimal damage.

Key Information

The GECS is a valuable barometer of the global economy, reflecting the views of finance professionals.
Confidence in the global economy is slightly down from Q1 but still very high.
Orders are a good proxy for real economic activity, and they are increasing in most regions, except South Asia.
Inflation expectations are rising, especially in the US, and could lead to higher interest rates.
Housing markets are playing a crucial role in the recovery of advanced economies.
The economic outlook is uneven, with advanced economies recovering more quickly than emerging markets.

Conclusion

The Q2 GECS highlights a strong but uneven global economic recovery. While advanced economies are on track for robust growth, emerging markets face challenges due to slow vaccination and limited fiscal support. The housing market boom is a key factor in the recovery of consumer spending and GDP growth, but rising inflation and interest rates could slow future growth. The survey underscores the importance of vaccination progress, fiscal policy, and monetary conditions in shaping the global economic trajectory.