ACCA-全球经济状况调查报告_2025年第二季度（英）-2025_11页_4mb

报告摘要

Summary of Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q2, 2025

Core Content

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) by ACCA and IMA provides an overview of economic conditions and risk perceptions among accountants and CFOs globally. The report highlights a modest improvement in confidence among global accountants in Q2 2025, but notes that this confidence remains historically low. Key indicators such as New Orders and Capital Expenditure showed only minor changes, while the Employment Index improved slightly. However, the report suggests that a major economic slowdown is not imminent, despite rising uncertainties and trade tensions.

Main Views and Key Findings

Global Confidence

Global confidence improved in Q2 2025, the highest level since Q3 2024.
Confidence remains weak by historical standards, with a notable decline in Asia Pacific and modest gains in Western Europe and North America.
Asia Pacific confidence dropped sharply, erasing Q1 gains, likely due to U.S. trade policy uncertainty and import tariffs.
Africa saw the strongest confidence rise, reaching its highest level since Q1 2022.
South Asia and the Middle East also showed mixed results, with South Asia experiencing a sharp decline in confidence and Middle East showing a slight increase, though with a small sample size noted for caution.

Economic Indicators

New Orders Index declined slightly in Q2 but remained at its historical average, indicating resilient global growth.
Capital Expenditure Index showed modest changes, with the UK and Western Europe showing some improvement.
Employment Index improved in Western Europe and North America, though still below historical averages.
Cost pressures eased globally, with the proportion of accountants reporting increased costs dropping to its lowest since Q4 2021, though still elevated in Western Europe and North America.

CFOs' Confidence and Risk Perception

CFO confidence fell slightly in Q2 and is now similar to the broader panel.
New Orders Index for CFOs deteriorated sharply, indicating greater pessimism among finance leaders.
CFOs' concerns about increased costs rose moderately, remaining elevated by historical standards.
Employment Index for CFOs remained very low, significantly below the broader panel.

Risk Priorities

Geopolitical instability became the top risk priority for the first time, surpassing economic concerns.
Talent scarcity and cybersecurity remained critical but less prominent.
Economic, regulatory, and compliance risks were the second highest, with inflation and recession fears still present.
Internal risks such as governance gaps, cost fragility, and workforce strain are increasingly seen as significant threats.

Regional Analysis

North America

Confidence rose slightly but remains close to its Q1 record low.
Employment Index improved, driven by a decline in staff cuts/hiring freezes.
New Orders Index fell, now below historical average.
Cost pressures eased slightly but remain elevated.

Asia Pacific

Confidence fell sharply, now below historical average.
New Orders Index declined, though above average.
Capital Expenditure and Employment indices showed mixed results, with Employment Index falling sharply.
Cost pressures increased, but not to historically high levels.

Western Europe

Confidence improved, though still historically low.
New Orders Index declined slightly, but above average.
Capital Expenditure Index fell, while Employment Index improved.
Cost pressures eased, but remain high in the region.

Middle East

Confidence rose slightly, above historical average.
New Orders Index increased, remaining at high levels.
Capital Expenditure and Employment indices showed contrasting trends, with Employment Index rising.
Cost pressures fell, and growth is supported by non-oil economies and rising oil production.

South Asia

Confidence fell sharply, now below historical average.
New Orders Index declined, but close to average.
Capital Expenditure Index declined, while Employment Index improved.
Cost pressures eased, but regional tensions and U.S. tariffs continue to affect sentiment.

Africa

Confidence rose strongly, reaching its highest level since Q1 2022.
New Orders Index fell sharply, but remains at a healthy level.
Capital Expenditure and Employment indices improved, above historical averages.
Inflation concerns eased, with cost pressures at historical average.

Conclusion

Despite some improvements in confidence and economic indicators, the global economy remains under pressure from geopolitical instability, trade policy uncertainty, and rising costs. While growth is resilient, sub-par U.S. growth and tariff increases are likely to slow global expansion in the second half of 2025. CFOs are particularly concerned about new orders and cost pressures, highlighting the fragmented risk landscape and the need for internal resilience. The report underscores the importance of governance, talent, and cybersecurity in navigating the current economic and political environment.