2021-10-13-ACCA-全球经济状况调查_2021年第3季度（英）_20页_1mb

Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) Q3 2021 Summary

The GECS report for Q3 2021 identifies ongoing economic headwinds, though marked improvements compared to recent surges in confidence.

Key Findings

1. Global Economic Growth Moderation:

   • Growth momentum weakened despite a strong Q2 rebound, with supply shortages and higher prices constraining further expansion, especially in advanced economies.
   • Global GDP growth is projected at ~5.7% for 2021 and ~4.5% for 2022 (OECD), slightly lower than previous expectations.

2. Confidence Normalization:
   Confidence fell from its pandemic peak but returned to long-term averages, with a split across regions and sectors. Concerns about customers and suppliers defaulting decreased moderately, signaling reduced uncertainty.

3. Persistent Supply Chain Issues and Inflation:
   Supply constraints, driven by the Delta variant, chip shortages, and logistics costs (especially shipping), are limiting output and pushing prices higher worldwide.

   • Global inflation rose significantly, with rates reaching ~3.2% (UK), ~3.4% (Eurozone), and ~5.3% (US), though financial markets anticipate a temporary nature leading to future declines.

4. Regional Variations:

   • North America & Western Europe: Moderated growth due to supply shortages, but confidence dipped, particularly in the UK (pre-pandemic output ~3.3% below pre-COVID).
   • Asia-Pacific: Mixed results; exports buoyancy supports growth, but vaccination rates and restrictions hampered Q3.
   • Middle East: Strongest confidence gains due to oil prices.
   • South Asia: Recovery driven by India, despite persistent poverty risks.
   • Africa: Confidence reached record highs, but output remains below Q4 2019 levels; heavily affected by the Delta variant and low vaccination.

5. Carbon Pricing Imperative:

   • Carbon taxes and ETSs are deemed critical for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
   • Existing schemes are insufficient/covers far too few emissions ($75/tCO2 needed; current coverage ~23%).
   • Risk of carbon leakage and suggested policy tools include the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and a minimum global carbon floor.

6. Green Infrastructure & Investment Shift:

   • Achieving net zero requires large-scale investment in renewable energy, electrification, and efficiency, estimated at 0.5–4.5% of GDP cumulatively by 2030, creating ~60 million jobs.

Executive Summary

Global growth is moderating from record levels; confidence returns to normal ranges due to easing concerns about business defaults (addressed by supply hurdles). Notable risks include inflation volatility, supply chain persistence, high debt levels in emerging markets, and climate change policy implementation gaps.