ACCA-2020Q1全球经济状况调查：全球衰退信号（英文）-2020.4-16页_1mb

Summary of the Q1 2020 Global Economic Conditions Survey Report

Core Content

The Q1 2020 Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), conducted by ACCA and IMA, provides a comprehensive overview of the global economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is the largest regular economic survey of accountants worldwide, with 983 responses from members, including over 100 Chief Financial Officers (CFOS). The report highlights the sharp decline in economic confidence and activity across all regions, with Asia-Pacific being the most affected.

Main Indices and Trends

• Global confidence fell to its lowest level on record, with all regions experiencing significant drops.
• Orders balance also fell sharply, though not to an all-time low, indicating a real economic contraction.
• Asia-Pacific had the lowest confidence and the largest decline in orders, reflecting the early impact of the pandemic.
• Suppliers and customers concerns rose sharply, with Asia-Pacific reporting record highs.
• Inflation concerns reached a record low, driven by both supply and demand shocks.
• Oil prices dropped by around 60%, with Brent crude selling below $30 per barrel by the end of March.
• Emerging market (EM) economies face additional risks due to capital outflows and the burden of dollar-denominated debt.

Regional Analysis

Region	Key Observations
Asia-Pacific	First to experience the pandemic; lowest confidence and largest orders decline;
	significant rise in concerns about suppliers and customers.
North America	Early signs of the pandemic impact; end of the longest US economic expansion.
Western Europe	Sharp confidence fall but other indicators held up; expected to suffer economic contraction.
Middle East	Modest confidence fall; impact of oil price drop and pandemic will be significant.
South Asia	Confidence remained stable initially; economies like India and Pakistan are at risk of contraction.
Africa	Smallest drop in confidence; few reported cases at the time of the survey.

Policy Response

• Monetary policy: Central banks have slashed interest rates to near zero, expanded quantitative easing (QE), and provided cheap liquidity to the banking system.
• Fiscal policy: Governments are providing direct support to households and businesses, including wage subsidies, tax deferrals, and grants.
• US, UK, and Germany: Enacted fiscal packages worth around 10% of GDP, with the US package including $367bn for SMEs.
• Fiscal stimulus: Aimed at replacing lost private sector income and preventing a prolonged recession.
• Public sector deficits and debt: Expected to rise sharply, potentially exceeding 10% of GDP in many countries.

Long-Term Effects

• The scale of the economic shock is likely to have long-term implications, including a permanent increase in public spending.
• Globalization may face further challenges, with supply chains becoming more localized due to the exposure of their vulnerabilities.
• Trade is expected to fall sharply this year, possibly by 20%, and recovery remains uncertain.
• The eurozone is at risk due to the lack of a unified fiscal policy, potentially increasing the risk of a sovereign debt crisis.

Conclusion

The GECS indicates that the global economy is on the brink of a severe recession, with Asia-Pacific suffering the most immediate impact. The policy response has been substantial, with both monetary and fiscal measures aimed at mitigating the economic damage. However, the long-term consequences of the crisis, including increased public debt and a potential shift in globalization, remain significant and uncertain. The report emphasizes the need for coordinated global efforts to ensure a swift and sustainable recovery.