20240223-财通证券-智能驾驶研究框架（三）特斯拉专题_32页_2mb

Tesla Autonomous Driving Research Summary

Tesla's Autonomous Driving Development

Tesla's autonomous driving journey is divided into three stages:

• 2013-2016: Foundation Period - Involved partnerships with Mobileye for hardware and software, introducing Autopilot with incremental features.
• 2016-2019: Transition to Self-Research - Shifted to Nvidia-based processors, with enhanced sensor configurations and algorithms, leading to independent development.
• 2019-Present: Full Self-Research - Covers entire stack from hardware (e.g., FSD chips) to software, including data acquisition through shadow mode and advanced neural networks for decision-making.

Key innovations include:

• Shadow Mode - Collects real-world data by comparing autonomous driving decisions with driver inputs to identify edge cases.
• HydraNet - Replaces single-task neural networks with multi-head architecture for efficient multi-task learning in perception.
• BEV+Transformer - Converts 2D camera data into bird's-eye-view coordinates for better fusion and decision-making, incorporating temporal features.
• Occupancy Network - Uses voxel-based modeling to detect obstacles without explicit labeling, improving real-world handling.
• End-to-End System - Leverages deep neural networks for direct prediction of driving actions, mimicking human driving but with reduced interpretability.

Full Self-Driving (FSD) Implementation and Pricing

FSD is primarily available in North America via subscription or one-time purchase, with varying adoption rates by region (e.g., >100% in North America vs. <0.5% in Asia-Pacific). In other regions, FSD is limited to premium options or not fully deployed. Pricing has increased from $5,000 in 2019 to $12,000 as of 2024, offering tiers from basic driver aids to advanced urban navigation.

Tesla's Business Structure and Performance

Tesla operates in two main sectors: automotive and energy. Automotive sales dominate revenue (81% in 2023), with increasing profitability due to vertical integration and economies of scale. Other revenue streams include energy storage, services (e.g., supercharging), and software subscriptions. Growth has been fueled by global expansion and manufacturing advancements like integrated casting. As of 2023, Tesla delivered over 1.81 million vehicles globally, with a strong employee base exceeding 140,000 people.

Investment Recommendations

The report recommends focusing on companies in the automotive intelligence supply chain with deep software expertise, including Debao West, Jiming Electronics, Zhongkongguoda, Jingwei Hrunt, Guangting Information, and Huayang Group. These firms offer high growth potential in intelligent vehicle technology.

Risk Assessment

Potential risks include:

• Slower adoption of autonomous driving due to consumer or manufacturer reluctance.
• Delays in favorable policy or regulatory support for L3 autonomous features.
• Supply chain issues, such as chip shortages.
• Negative impacts from global economic downturns on innovation and R&D.