20151127-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_795kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market across Asia, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam, along with global major players. It includes recent news headlines, analyst insights, and valuations for various companies in the sector. The focus is on market trends, company performance, and investment ratings.

Main News Headlines

China's Crude Oil Futures Contract Delayed: The launch of China's crude oil futures contract is likely to be postponed to the second quarter of 2016. Authorities are reviewing the crude grades included for delivery to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern crude and ensure supply security.
Easing of Import Rules in China: The Chinese government is opening up the crude-import market to private companies more quickly than expected, aiming to stimulate the economy and support refiners.
UK Oil Jobs Drop: The number of oil and gas jobs in the UK fell at the fastest rate in at least 11 years, with a 6% decline in employment from the previous year.
Libyan Oil Sales: Glencore recognizes the Tripoli-based National Oil Corp. (NOC) as the sole legal seller of Libyan oil, supporting its position as an independent entity.
Triple Energy's Fracking Activity: Triple Energy plans to frack and test a well in China's Heilongjiang province, citing encouraging data from similar wells.

Analyst Insights

KNM Group

Performance: 9M15 below expectations; weak GP margin and deferred tax charges affected 3Q15 results.
Earnings Forecast: Cut 2015-17 earnings by 3%–53%; potential for re-rating with energy play.
Rating: Reiterated BUY with a lower TP of MYR0.80 (-20%), implying 9x 2017 PER.

Icon Offshore

Performance: 9M15 above expectations; OSV utilisation rates increased sequentially.
Earnings Forecast: Adjusted net earnings for 2015/16/17 by +50% / +20% / -57%; improved risk-reward but no absolute recovery.
Rating: Upgraded to HOLD from SELL with a higher TP of MYR0.37 (+88%), rolling forward valuations to 10x 2017 PER.

Perisai Petroleum

Performance: 9M15 above expectations; cost-cutting measures improved core performance.
Earnings Forecast: Raised FY15-17 earnings by 176%–200%; operations are turning around.
Rating: Upgraded to HOLD with a higher TP of MYR0.29 (+32%), based on 1x EV/replacement value peg.

Bumi Armada

Performance: 9M15 in line with expectations; FPSO operations are performing well.
Earnings Forecast: Execution of 4 jobs and cash flow management are key priorities.
Rating: Reiterated BUY with an unchanged TP of MYR1.20 based on SOP.

Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indices (26 November 2015)

Commodity	Bloomberg Ticker	Units	Last Price	Dollar Chg. 1D	1D Change	1W Change	1M Change
Crude Oil (Brent)	COA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	46.17	0.00	0.0%	4.5%	-2.9%
Crude Oil (WTI)	CLA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	43.04	0.00	0.0%	3.2%	-2.4%
Dubai Fateh Spot	PGCRDUBA Index	USD/barrel	41.01	-0.06	-0.1%	2.8%	-6.3%
China Daqing Spot	APCRDAQG Index	USD/barrel	38.90	0.16	0.4%	3.9%	-5.4%
NYMEX Henry Hub	NGA COMDTY	USD/MMBtu	2.30	0.00	0.0%	-4.7%	-9.2%
LNG Northeast Asia CFR	JKL1 Index	USD/MMBtu	7.35	0.00	0.4%	-2.4%	3.5%
Singapore 92 RON Spot	MOGFM92S Index	USD/barrel	54.95	0.01	0.0%	1.6%	-6.6%
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot	GASL500P Index	USD/gallon	57.57	-0.03	-0.1%	0.3%	-2.3%
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot	N6SH180S Index	USD/mt	230.18	-0.11	0.0%	0.9%	-4.8%
Gold	XAU CURNCY	USD/Oz	1,072.33	1.21	0.1%	-0.9%	-8.1%
USD-CNY	USDCNY CURNCY	Fx rate	6.39	0.00	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%
DJI	DJI INDEX	Index	17,813.39	0.00	0.0%	0.5%	1.3%
S&P 500	SPX INDEX	Index	2,088.87	0.00	0.0%	0.4%	1.1%

Company Valuations (Asia)

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 24-Nov	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE % 2015E	P/BV (x) 2015E	Yield (%) 2015E
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	5.63	4.80	243.3	82.5	24.8	43.3	6.4	7.2	2.8	0.7	1.8
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Buy	5.07	6.00	94.1	69.9	12.3	13.4	5.5	5.8	6.5	0.8	3.9
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	8.55	11.34	49.3	92.5	15.9	19.1	4.0	4.2	5.1	0.8	4.6
New Ocean Energy	342 HK	Buy	3.29	7.70	0.6	0.8	4.6	3.8	4.4	3.1	19.0	0.8	2.2
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	234.1	NR	30.3	16.4	8.4	8.7	N/A	4.4	13.3	1.1	4.2
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	946.9	NR	46.3	50.1	12.7	11.5	N/A	9.4	11.2	1.4	1.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	137.1	198.00	3.9	6.0	3.8	8.0	N/A	2.0	11.7	0.4	6.6
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	916.1	NR	10.0	18.7	21.1	11.1	N/A	7.5	15.2	3.1	1.7
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	800.7	NR	4.1	17.9	20.5	9.2	N/A	7.6	8.8	1.8	2.1
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	7.77	11.25	1.6	0.4	17.8	10.5	8.6	6.9	5.4	1.2	0.6
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.69	4.75	0.1	0.0	6.3	5.5	7.8	7.1	11.6	0.7	2.7
S-Oil	010950 KS	NR	75,200	NR	7.3	18.7	10.8	10.5	7.7	7.8	15.2	1.6	2.7
SK Innovation	096770 KS	NR	124,000	NR	9.9	95.2	9.5	9.1	6.1	6.3	7.8	0.7	2.3
GS Holdings	078930 KS	NR	51,000	NR	4.1	8.8	8.9	8.7	8.8	8.8	8.3	0.7	2.5
Formosa Petrochemical	6505 TT	NR	77.50	NR	22.7	7.5	18.2	19.7	12.1	N/A	15.1	2.8	4.1
Bumi Armada	BAB MK	Buy	1.05	1.20	1.4	4.6	30.6	27.5	10.7	10.8	3.1	1.0	0.0
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	57.00	87.00	7.2	19.2	9.7	8.5	6.5	6.0	11.2	1.0	4.7
PTT PCL	PTT TB	Buy	275.0	395.00	22.0	57.4	11.1	8.9	15.0	14.7	16.9	4.1	2.8
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	62.3	65.00	3.6	9.5	10.1	9.8	6.8	6.4	14.2	1.4	4.1
Asian Refiners Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	13.4	15.5	-20.5	6.5	7.7	1.7	3.1
Asian E&P Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	16.5	20.2	5.0	5.3	6.9	1.0	2.7

Key Information

The document outlines the current state of the oil and gas market, highlighting trends in crude oil futures, import regulations, and employment in the sector.
Analysts from Maybank Kim Eng provide ratings and target prices for various companies, reflecting their performance and future prospects.
The valuations section includes key financial metrics such as PER, EV/EBITDA, ROE, and P/BV, offering insights into market valuation and performance expectations.
The report is sourced from Bloomberg and Maybank KE, with some data weighted by market capitalization.
The news highlights significant developments in China, the UK, Libya, and the Philippines, affecting market dynamics and company strategies.

展开完整摘要