20150807-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_783kb

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

• Oil & Gas Price Movements (6 August 2015):

  • Brent Crude Oil fell by 0.1% to USD49.52/b, with a 1D change of -0.07 and 1W change of -0.1%.
  • WTI Crude Oil dropped 1.1% to USD44.66/b, with a 1D change of -0.49 and 1W change of -7.1%.
  • Dubai Fateh Spot declined 0.9% to USD48.11/b, with a 1D change of -0.43 and 1M change of -11.1%.
  • China Daqing Spot fell 1.1% to USD44.15/b, with a 1D change of -0.47 and 1M change of -10.0%.
  • NYMEX Henry Hub dropped 0.5% to USD2.81/MMBtu, with a 1D change of +0.02 and 1W change of +1.6%.
  • LNG Northeast Asia CFR decreased 1.1% to USD8.03/MMBtu, with a 1D change of +0.00 and 1M change of +8.8%.
  • Singapore 92 RON Spot fell 1.4% to USD63.94/b, with a 1D change of -0.89 and 1W change of -10.2%.
  • Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot dropped 1.3% to USD61.98/b, with a 1D change of -0.82 and 1W change of -4.1%.
  • 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot fell 1.8% to USD270.23/mt, with a 1D change of -4.89 and 1W change of -6.7%.
  • Gold increased 0.4% to USD1,089.55/Oz, with a 1D change of +4.52 and 1M change of -5.7%.
  • USD-CNY remained stable at 6.21, with no change in 1D and 1W.
  • DJI dropped 0.7% to 17,419.75, with a 1D change of -120.72 and 1M change of -2.0%.
  • S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 2,083.56, with a 1D change of -16.28 and 1M change of +0.1%.

• News Highlights:

  • NWE fuel oil reached a three-week low, with low sulfur fuel oil prices at $245.75/mt, showing a discount of $3.25/mt to high sulfur FOB Rotterdam.
  • Thailand's oil products demand is expected to slow in the second half of 2015 due to economic slowdown, possibly leading to refinery output cuts and export efforts.
  • ExxonMobil expanded its Permian position with 48,000 acres in the Midland sub-basin, focusing on Wolfcamp and Lower Spraberry intervals.
  • Oil firms are concerned about a potential crisis similar to the 1980s, as crude prices remain below $50 and companies face debt and cash flow issues.
  • Gas prices in the U.S. could fall to $2 a gallon, with AAA motor club predicting a 15-cent drop in coming weeks.
  • China's oil demand rose 4.1% in June compared to the previous year, but gasoline and LPG demand slowed, while gasoil and jet fuel saw a contraction.

Key Reports

• Petronas Gas – HOLD

  • Scheduled shutdowns in 2Q15 impacted product volumes, but no major shutdowns are planned for 2H15.
  • Target Price (TP) remains MYR24.00.

• PetroVietnam Drilling – BUY

  • PVD is a drilling contractor for Vietnam's offshore E&P, contributing 60% and 38% to profit.
  • Share price is -52% from the VND90,530 peak in Sep'14.
  • Recommendation is BUY for investors seeking O&G opportunities, due to recent catalysts, defensive nature, and Vietnam's O&G growth.

• Malaysia Oil & Gas – NEUTRAL

  • Iran's agreement with P5+1 may add 200k-700k bpd to the market once sanctions are lifted.
  • DD-SS imbalances could affect sentiment.
  • Preferred BUYs include Yinson, Bumi Armada, Dialog, and KNM.

• SapuraKencana Petroleum – HOLD

  • Secured a USD273m turnkey job from ONGC.
  • GSA negotiations are ongoing, and a favorable deal could be a catalyst.
  • Target Price (TP) remains MYR2.80.

Asian Oil & Gas Valuations

Asian Oil-Service Valuations

Analysts

• Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): Contact (852) 22680648, Email: howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
• Jigar Shah (INDIA): Contact (91) 2266232632, Email: jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
• Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): Contact (62) 21 2557 1137, Email: pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
• Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): Contact (603) 22978688, Email: tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
• Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): Contact (63) 28498840, Email: micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
• Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): Contact (65) 6231 5842, Email: yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
• Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): Contact (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, Email: sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
• Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): Contact (84) 844555888x8082, Email: chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
• Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): Contact (84) 444555888 x 8087, Email: binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Notes

• LNG Northeast Asia CFR is based on ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price for LNG and Platts' assessment of the spot physical LNG market.
• Market assessments are made by Platts at 4:30 pm, Singapore time.
• Forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
• Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.
• NR = Not Rated, UR = Under Review.