20150915-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_779kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the regional oil and gas market as of 14 September 2015, with a focus on price movements, company-specific reports, and market valuations across Asia, including China, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. It also includes insights from analysts and market trends.

Key Market Trends

Oil Prices:
- Brent crude fell by 3.7% to USD46.37/b, while WTI dropped 1.4% to USD44.00/b.
- The Brent-WTI spread narrowed, indicating a shift in market dynamics.
- Economic data from China and weak petrol prices contributed to the decline in oil prices.
- A supply draw at Cushing, Oklahoma, helped US crude futures outperform Brent.
LNG in India:
- LNG is expected to make up half of India's gas consumption by 2017-18, rising from 33% in 2013-14.
- Deloitte forecasts India's gas consumption to increase from 144 mmscmd to 262 mmscmd.
- LNG prices are competitive with traditional fuels, except for coal, which remains cheaper but is under environmental pressure.
China's Gas Output:
- China's gas output in August increased by 6% year-on-year to 10.4 billion cubic metres.
- State energy companies are reducing output due to a slowdown in demand growth.

Company Reports

China

Petronas Chemicals: ASP declined but is insulated by MYR weakness. Rating: HOLD.
China Oil & Gas: Sector upgraded to Overweight. Sinopec upgraded to BUY; PetroChina downgraded to SELL.
KNM Group: Expected to secure more RAPID works. Rating: BUY.
PetroChina: 1H15 net profit down 63% YoY. Earnings expected to decline further. Rating: SELL.

India

ONGC: Not rated, but its market cap and turnover are noted.
Reliance Industries: Not rated.
Cairn India: Hold. Target price at USD198.00.
BPCL: Not rated.
HPCL: Not rated.

Japan

INPEX: Not rated.
JAPEX: Not rated.
JX Holding: Not rated.
Showa Shell: Not rated.
TonenGeneral: Not rated.
Idemitsu: Not rated.
Cosmo: Not rated.

Malaysia

Gas Malaysia: Buy. Target price at USD2.65.
Petronas Gas: Hold. Target price at USD24.00.

Philippines

Petron Corp: Buy. Target price at USD11.25.
Phoenix Petro: Buy. Target price at USD4.75.

Thailand

PTT Global Chemical PCL: Buy. Target price at USD87.00.
PTT PCL: Buy. Target price at USD395.00.
Thai Oil PCL: Sell. Target price at USD65.00.

Vietnam

PetroVietnam Gas: Buy. Target price at USD92,000.

Asian Oil & Gas Valuations

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 14-Sep	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER (2015E)	PER (2016E)	EV/EBITDA (2015E)	EV/EBITDA (2016E)	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	8.58	11.70	49.4	93.2	15.7	18.7	4.1	4.2	5.1	0.8	0.8
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	143.6	198.00	4.1	7.0	3.9	6.9	1.2	2.0	11.7	0.4	6.3
INPEX	1605 JT	NR	1,085	NR	13.2	57.5	18.2	26.7	2.9	3.6	3.2	0.6	1.6
JAPEX	1662 JT	NR	3,335	NR	1.6	8.6	5.4	14.4	4.8	8.4	7.7	0.4	1.5
Gas Malaysia	GMB MK	Buy	2.32	2.65	0.7	0.2	24.1	24.1	13.5	13.0	12.2	2.9	4.1
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	21.48	24.00	9.9	6.1	23.5	23.3	14.1	13.8	16.7	3.8	3.0
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	7.20	11.25	1.4	0.6	16.4	9.7	8.0	7.0	4.4	0.7	0.7
Phoenix Petroleum Philippines	PNX PM	Buy	3.25	4.75	0.1	0.1	5.5	4.9	7.6	6.9	11.6	0.6	3.1
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	55.3	87.00	6.9	24.6	9.1	8.0	6.0	5.5	11.4	1.0	5.1
PTT PCL	PTT TB	Buy	246.0	395.00	19.5	60.3	8.5	7.6	5.9	5.6	10.8	0.9	4.7
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	52.3	65.00	3.0	8.6	8.7	9.1	6.2	6.1	13.6	1.2	4.8
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	Buy	45,500	92,000	3.8	1.1	9.8	10.5	4.7	4.7	23.4	2.2	7.3

Asian Oil-Service Valuations

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 14-Sep	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER (2015E)	PER (2016E)	EV/EBITDA (2015E)	EV/EBITDA (2016E)	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
COSL	2883 HK	NR	8.24	NR	9.5	18.4	12.8	10.1	11.6	10.3	5.4	0.7	0.0
Anton Oil	3337 HK	NR	1.00	NR	0.3	0.9	N/A	82.2	11.7	8.6	7.3	0.5	2.0
SPT Energy	1251 HK	NR	0.69	NR	0.1	0.5	N/A	43.6	-10.1	5.7	10.8	0.5	0.0
Hilong	1623 HK	NR	1.54	NR	0.3	0.6	6.6	5.7	6.1	5.6	10.8	0.7	2.7
Honghua	196 HK	NR	0.58	NR	0.2	0.6	N/A	22.7	12.2	9.0	7.3	0.3	0.4
Petro King	2178 HK	NR	0.69	NR	0.1	0.1	N/A	345.0	15.4	10.6	7.3	0.4	0.0
Jutal Offshore	3303 HK	NR	0.72	NR	0.1	0.3	11.8	7.4	N/A	N/A	7.3	0.3	0.0
Shengli Pipe	1080 HK	NR	0.24	NR	0.1	0.2	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	7.3	0.3	0.0
Chu Kong Pipe	1938 HK	NR	1.39	NR	0.2	0.2	N/A	8.8	39.9	21.2	7.3	0.3	0.0
Bumi Armada	BAB MK	Buy	0.91	1.20	1.2	2.3	26.4	23.7	9.8	9.9	3.1	0.8	4.0
Dialog	DLG MK	Buy	1.61	1.90	1.9	2.3	28.5	30.5	27.3	28.9	15.9	4.0	1.4
KNM	KNMG MK	Buy	0.50	1.00	0.2	3.6	7.2	6.1	5.3	4.4	5.1	0.4	0.0
MMHE	MMHE MK	Hold	1.02	1.32	0.4	0.3	11.8	13.7	6.5	6.3	5.1	0.6	0.0
Perdana Petroleum	PETR MK	Buy	1.53	1.70	0.3	0.7	19.1	9.1	14.1	9.2	8.6	1.6	0.0
Yinson	YNS MK	Buy	2.80	4.35	0.7	0.5	20.3	18.0	15.1	14.5	13.9	2.0	0.7

Analyst Contacts

HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson, (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn