【亚开行】东帝汶的财政状况：税收和公共支出对贫困和不平等的影响_57页_1mb

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (ADB)
Fiscal Incidence in Timor-Leste: Impact of Taxation and Public Expenditure on Poverty and Inequality

Key Findings:

• Poverty Reduction:
  Timor-Leste reduced the poverty headcount from 47.2% to 30.3% (2007–2014), one of the largest reductions among CEQ-assessed countries.

  • Cash and near-cash transfers (e.g., Bolsa da Mãe, pensions) reduced poverty by 10.4 percentage points.
  • In-kind benefits (health, education) further reduced poverty by 11 percentage points when income is adjusted.

• Inequality Reduction:
  Fiscal policy decreased the Gini coefficient from 0.32 to 0.27, making it one of the most effective redistributive systems for an income-adjusted country (deviates from GDP expectations).

  • Direct taxes have minimal impact due to low tax revenue (≤4% GNI) and small tax collection.

• Effectiveness of Transfers:

  • Veterans' and retirement pensions are largest spendings and highly effective, reducing poverty by 3.6–4.6 percentage points and inequality by 1.6–2.0 percentage points.
  • Bolsa da Mãe is moderately targeted but needs improvement for better effectiveness (current size $10 million per year).
  • Education and health benefits show high coverage (80–97%) for younger and lower-income groups, reducing poverty significantly.

• Tax Effectiveness:

  • Indirect taxes and electricity subsidies are regressive, but a value-added tax (VAT) exempting food and rice would increase effectiveness and revenue.
  • Raising the income tax exemption or targeting vulnerable groups minimizes negative impacts on poverty.

• Fiscal Policy Recommendations:

  • Improve targeting of social transfers (e.g., universal basic income simulations).
  • Explore revenue-neutral adjustments like reallocating electricity subsidy savings to Bolsa da Mãe.
  • Sustainable fiscal adjustments should prioritize inclusive growth and poverty reduction while ensuring fiscal sustainability.

Conclusions:

• Timor-Leste’s fiscal policy is progressive and effective at reducing poverty, contrasting with limited impact on inequality due to high-income distribution density and political challenges.
• Short-term poverty relief is supported by substantial transfer payments; long-term strategy must address revenue mobilization and smarter targeting.