世界银行-2024年春季地区贫困和不平等更新（英）-2024-20页_42mb

Regional Poverty and Inequality Update Spring 2024 Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of poverty and inequality trends in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) from 2019 to 2023, with projections for 2024. It highlights the progress made in poverty reduction, the persistent high levels of inequality, and the role of various economic factors in shaping these outcomes.

Key Trends in Poverty

• Poverty Decline: In 2022, poverty in LAC reached its lowest level of the century, with 26% of the population living in poverty (using the $6.85 a day 2017 PPP poverty line).
• Continued Reduction: According to nowcasting models, poverty further declined in 2023, with one out of every four people in the region still in poverty, and is expected to remain at that level in 2024.
• Country-Level Variations:
  • Brazil and Mexico were key drivers of poverty reduction.
  • Several other countries saw poverty rates that were higher than prepandemic levels by the end of the study period.
• Poverty Profiles:
  • Groups that traditionally had lower poverty rates (e.g., those with higher education, urban residents, and formal workers) saw an increase in their share of the poor population.
  • This shift is attributed to the increased generosity of public transfers, which tend to benefit more vulnerable groups.

Inequality in LAC

• High Inequality: LAC remains one of the most unequal regions globally, with a Gini coefficient of 49.9 in 2022, slightly above the 2020 minimum of 49.7 but 1.1 points lower than the 2019 prepandemic level of 51.0.
• Brazil's Influence: Brazil significantly affects the regional Gini coefficient. When excluded, the Gini coefficient for the rest of LAC rose to 48.0, compared to 49.9 when including Brazil.
• Post-Pandemic Trends:
  • The V-shaped shock in 2020-21 was largely due to Brazil's unprecedented cash transfer program, which reduced inequality.
  • When Brazil reduced its mitigation measures in 2021, the regional Gini coefficient rebounded to 50.5.
  • The nowcasting model suggests a slight decline in inequality to 49.7 in 2023, with no significant change expected in 2024.

Sources of Income

• Transfers: Public transfers were a major driver of poverty reduction from 2019 to 2022, as they grew more rapidly among poorer deciles.
• Labor Income:
  • Labor income in LAC declined sharply during the pandemic, with a reduction of 7.7 percentage points between 2019 and 2020.
  • By 2022, labor income was still 5.0 percentage points below 2019 levels.
  • The Dominican Republic, Argentina, Peru, and Panama experienced the steepest reductions in total labor income.
  • El Salvador, Chile, and Mexico were the only countries where total labor income exceeded prepandemic levels.
• Post-Pandemic Recovery:
  • Transfers moderated after the pandemic but remained higher than in 2019 across most LAC economies.
  • Labor income growth did not fully recover to prepandemic levels in many countries.

Drivers of Poverty Reduction

• Regional Level: Poverty reduction in LAC was primarily driven by public transfers, while a decline in labor earnings increased poverty by about 0.4 percentage points.
• Country-Level Insights:
  • Brazil: Poverty reduction was linked to social benefits like the Bolsa Família program, improvements in labor earnings (especially in the services sector), and increased employment rates.
  • Mexico: Poverty reduction was mainly due to increases in labor earnings, following a significant rise in the minimum wage and a slight decrease in unemployment and informality.

Conclusion

The LAC region has made progress in reducing poverty, particularly in 2022 and 2023, driven by public transfers and improvements in labor income in certain countries. However, inequality remains high, with Brazil playing a central role in maintaining regional disparities. The demographic composition of the poor has shifted, with more vulnerable groups being affected. The recovery of labor income has been uneven, and the role of transfers continues to be significant in mitigating poverty.