2024-12-29-世界银行-拉丁美洲和加勒比地区贫困和不平等最新情况_2024年10月（英）_27页_6mb

报告摘要

Poverty Rate: In 2023, the poverty rate in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) reached its lowest level of the century at 25%, down by 4.7 percentage points (p.p.) from 2021.
Extreme Poverty: The extreme poverty rate (living on less than US$2.15/day) declined by 1 p.p. since 2016.
Poverty Gap: According to the Poverty Gap indicator, it would cost at least US$99 million (2017 PPP) daily to eradicate poverty in the region.
Middle Class Growth: The middle class in LAC expanded to 41.1% in 2023, up from 36.0% in 2021, reaching the highest level of the century.
2024 Outlook: Poverty is projected to continue declining to 24.7% in 2024, while the middle class is expected to grow to 41.4%.

GDP Growth: LAC's GDP grew by 2.1% in 2023, slightly below the global average of 2.7%. Most countries are projected to grow between 1.5% and 4% in 2024.
Regional Growth: The region's projected growth for 2024 is 1.9 p.p., which is 0.7 p.p. below the world average.
Country-Specific Growth: Brazil and Mexico are expected to grow at 1.7–2.8%, while smaller economies like Uruguay and Costa Rica are projected to perform better.
Drivers of Growth: Recovery in tourism, strong remittance flows, and increased public investment are key drivers.
Inflation: Inflation is moderating in most countries, approaching central bank targets. Argentina remains an exception with high inflation.
Commodity Prices: Stable metal prices and moderate declines in agricultural and energy prices are expected to benefit LAC exporters.
Fiscal and External Risks: Fiscal pressures and external risks, including potential slowdowns in major trading partners and volatile commodity prices, threaten the region's stability.

Demographics: The poor in LAC are younger, have lower educational attainment, and are more likely to live in rural areas.
Education: Only 11% of the poor have completed tertiary education, compared to 31% of the middle class.
Area: About 63% of the poor live in urban areas, while 90% of the middle class does so.
Informality: Informal employment is significantly higher among the poor (81.2%) compared to the middle class (34.0%).
Sector: Agricultural workers are overrepresented among the poor, while service-sector workers are more common in the middle class.
Employment Type: Salaried workers are more prevalent in the middle class, while self-employed and unemployed workers are more common among the poor.

Gini Coefficient: The LAC region's Gini coefficient declined by 0.7 points between 2021 and 2023, indicating more equitable income distribution.
Country-Level Inequality: Colombia and Brazil have the highest inequality levels in the region, with Gini coefficients of 53.9 and 51.5, respectively. The Dominican Republic and El Salvador have the lowest, with Gini coefficients below 40.
Poverty-Driven Reduction: Lower-income households experienced faster income growth, contributing to the decline in inequality. However, the growth incidence curve flattened in 2022–2023, indicating more uniform growth across income groups.

Labor Income: Labor income was the main driver of poverty reduction, with significant growth in the poorest deciles (15.7% and 9.0% for the first and second deciles, respectively).
Non-Labor Income: Nonlabor income, particularly public transfers, declined in several countries, pushing poverty upward in some cases.
Gender Gap: Women in LAC experience worse job quality than men, with the largest gaps in Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Colombia.

JQI Overview: The JQI measures job quality based on benefits, income, satisfaction, and security. Higher values indicate better job quality.
2023 Performance: Costa Rica (0.84), Chile (0.85), and Brazil (0.76) had the highest JQI scores. Uruguay also ranked high with a JQI of 0.75.
Lowest JQI: Peru (0.55), Mexico (0.61), and Bolivia (0.60) had the lowest scores in 2022.
Stagnation: Job quality has been largely stagnant since 2016, with only a few countries showing modest improvements.
Gender Gap in JQI: A significant gender gap exists in job quality, with women generally experiencing worse conditions than men.

Internet Access: There is substantial variation in internet access across LAC countries, with higher access in wealthier nations like Chile and Costa Rica.
Poorest Countries: The Dominican Republic and El Salvador have the lowest internet access among poor households, with fewer than 1 in 5 poor households having internet access at home.
Factors: Affordability, lack of digital infrastructure, and territorial disparities contribute to the digital divide.

Definition: The Prosperity Gap (PG) measures the average income shortfall from a prosperity benchmark of US$25/day (2017 PPP), which is the income level required for a country to reach high-income status.
2023 PG: The PG in LAC was 3.6, meaning incomes would need to increase 3.6 times to meet the prosperity standard.

Poverty Reduction: The decline in poverty in LAC between 2021 and 2023 was primarily driven by positive labor market outcomes, which accounted for nearly two-thirds of the reduction.
Public Transfers: Public transfers remain a key poverty-reducing mechanism, but their gradual phasing out is affecting poorer households in several countries.
Economic Growth: The region's growth has been modest and below the global average, contributing to a slow pace of poverty reduction since 2016.
Inequality Reduction: The decline in income inequality since 2021 was largely due to faster income growth among lower-income households, although this trend has moderated.
Job Quality: While labor market conditions have improved, job quality remains stagnant or has declined in several countries, raising concerns about long-term poverty reduction.
Digital Divide: Access to the digital economy is uneven, with significant disparities in internet access among poor households, especially in the Dominican Republic and El Salvador.
Prosperity Gap: The Prosperity Gap highlights the substantial income shortfall needed to reach a high-income standard, indicating the challenges ahead for economic development in the region.