2024-04-29-亚开行-东帝汶的财政状况_税收和公共支出对贫困和不平等的影响（英）_58页_1mb

Fiscal Incidence in Timor-Leste: Impact of Taxation and Public Expenditure on Poverty and Inequality

Summary:

• Poverty Reduction: Timor-Leste's fiscal policies significantly reduce poverty, with cash and near-cash transfers lowering the poverty headcount by 10.4 percentage points. Including in-kind health and education benefits reduces it by a further 11 points.
• Inequality Reduction: Fiscal policy reduces the Gini coefficient from 0.32 to 0.27, which is above-average for the country's level of development.
• Taxes: Indirect taxes and small direct taxes increase poverty slightly. Taxes are less progressive compared to other countries, with only a small share collected from the poor.
• Social Expenditures: Public health and education benefits (in-kind) and cash transfers like Bolsa da Mãe are moderately effective, but their impact is limited due to poor targeting in this unique economic context.
• Policy Simulations: Improving targeting in Bolsa da Mãe or expanding universal benefits shows potential for reducing poverty and inequality with minimal budget increases.
• Low Tax Revenue: Retail taxes are regressive, and better resource mobilization is needed, though changes in the form of direct taxes or value-added taxes could be revenue-neutral or efficient.

Context:

• Timor-Leste leverages its petroleum revenues to fund social programs, resulting in high transfer payments and low taxation.
• Budget composition favors transfers over taxes, contributing to large net benefits for the poorest populations.