2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Romania_Request_for_a_Stand_112页_2mb

Summary of Romania's Request for a Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

The document outlines Romania's request for a new Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), following the successful completion of a 27-month SBA (2009-2011) and a 3-month extension (2011-2013). The new SBA, which is a 24-month arrangement, would provide a precautionary buffer against external shocks and support Romania's economic program for 2013-2015. The proposed access is SDR 1,751.34 million (approximately €2 billion), equivalent to 170% of Romania's quota.

The SBA is intended to complement the support from the European Union (€2 billion) and the World Bank (€1 billion), and is expected to be used to maintain macroeconomic stability, support structural reforms, and ensure financial sector resilience.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic Recovery: Romania has made progress in restoring macroeconomic stability since the 2008-09 crisis. However, the recovery is fragile, and the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly from the euro area and global capital flow volatility.

• Macroeconomic Objectives: The new SBA aims to:

  • Safeguard sound public finances through a stronger fiscal institutional framework.
  • Continue monetary and financial sector policies to restore buffers against external shocks.
  • Reduce bottlenecks to growth and competitiveness through structural reforms.

• Fiscal Policy: Romania's fiscal adjustment has been significant, with a focus on reducing deficits and improving public financial management. The program supports domestic demand through targeted measures, including bridge financing for EU projects and adjustments to the deficit target.

• Structural Reforms: Key areas include:

  • Durable reduction of arrears.
  • Energy price deregulation.
  • Reforms of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
  • Improved public financial management and medium-term budgeting.
  • Reduction of non-performing loans (NPLs).

• Financial Sector: The banking sector has strong capital buffers but faces challenges with NPLs and exposure to parent bank funding. The program includes measures to address these, such as improved provisioning and support for SMEs.

• Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies: The central bank has managed to maintain international reserves at €35.7 billion as of end-August 2013, despite significant repayments to the IMF. The exchange rate has been affected by global monetary tightening and volatile capital flows.

Key Information

Program Overview

• Duration: 24 months.
• Access: SDR 1,751.34 million (approximately €2 billion).
• First Tranche: SDR 194.7 million upon approval.
• Program Type: Precautionary, intended to support structural reforms and maintain macroeconomic stability.

Fiscal Performance (2013)

• Fiscal Deficit (Cash): 2.3% of GDP.
• EU Funds, post-accession: Lower than expected, contributing to a smaller deficit.
• Capital Expenditure: 0.2% of GDP under PNDI.
• Net Lending: -0.3% of GDP.
• Revenue Shortfalls: Tax and non-tax revenues were below projections, reflecting a less-tax-rich recovery and higher-than-expected social transfers.

Structural Reforms

• SOEs: Reforms are crucial for boosting investment and growth, particularly in the energy and transportation sectors.
• NPLs: The NPL ratio rose to 20.3% of total loans by end-June 2013, with provisions covering 88.3% of NPLs.
• Institutional Strengthening: The program supports strengthening fiscal institutions and improving the management of public debt and guarantees.

External Vulnerabilities

• Current Account: Improved in 2013 to a small surplus, but remains vulnerable to external shocks.
• Capital Flows: Portfolio inflows have declined, and FDI is weak.
• Reserves: Expected to decline to €30.5 billion by end-2015.
• Exchange Rate: Volatile, with the leu retracing earlier gains due to global monetary tightening.

Risks and Outlook

• Baseline Scenario: Growth is expected to rise to 2.0% in 2013 and 2.2% in 2014, with inflation declining to 3.3% by year-end 2013.
• Adverse Scenario: A deeper recession in the euro zone and slower growth in emerging markets could reduce growth by 2.5 percentage points over 2013–15, requiring additional external financing of €5 billion.
• Exchange Rate Risk: Increased exposure to foreign-currency lending could exacerbate risks from currency depreciation.

Political and Institutional Support

• The program has strong political backing from the governing coalition.
• The central bank and other institutions have been actively involved in the discussions and implementation.
• The IMF staff supports the request, emphasizing the importance of a precautionary program for policy discipline and structural reform.

Conclusion

The new SBA is a precautionary measure designed to support Romania's continued economic adjustment, reinforce financial sector stability, and catalyze structural reforms. It provides a reserve buffer against external shocks and complements support from the EU and the World Bank. The program is structured to allow for both long-term institutional reforms and short-term measures to support domestic demand and maintain macroeconomic stability.