IMF-跨境支付的货币用途（英）-2023.3-28页_2mb

Summary

Currency Usage for Cross-Border Payments

Introduction

• Cross-border payments are central to the international monetary system (IMS), facilitating trade, financial contracts, and aid.
• Currently dominated by the U.S. dollar (40%) and euro (closely followed), with other currencies like the pound, yen, and renminbi (2.5%) gaining traction.

Key Findings

• Inertia: High inertia in currency usage persists due to strong network effects and switching costs, resistant to change.
• Legal Tender Status: Countries accepting a currency as legal tender significantly boost its usage, especially for the dollar.
• Geopolitical Factors: Political proximity positively influences currency usage, but effects vary by region and currency.

Future Projections

• Short to medium-term: Insufficient cause for a highly fragmented IMS due to inertia and slow geopolitical/regulatory changes.
• Future Risk: Rapid geopolitical shifts or digital currency adoption could accelerate changes toward multipolarity or fragmentation.

Policy Implications

• Legal tender adoption is a key leverage point for currency usage, though politically contentious.
• Inertia suggests gradual transitions for existing currencies like the dollar and euro to their digital forms.
• Cryptocurrencies and CBDCs could significantly alter the IMS, but outcomes remain highly uncertain.

Key Points

• Dominated by the dollar and euro in cross-border payments, with increasing use of renminbi.
• Legal tender status and geopolitical proximity significantly influence currency usage.
• Future evolution of the IMS depends on technological adoption and geopolitical developments, but it remains unlikely to see drastic change in the short term.

End of Summary