IMF-人民币在跨境支付中的使用：区域模式以及掉期额度和离岸清算银行的作用（英）-2023.3-24页_1mb

Renminbi Usage in Cross-Border Payments: Regional Patterns and Policy Role

Introduction

The Renminbi (RMB) has seen limited international use in cross-border payments. Despite China's strong economic growth and trade integration, its financial integration is constrained by capital account restrictions. This paper examines regional patterns and the impact of policies like swap lines and offshore clearing banks on RMB adoption.

Regional Patterns

Based on Swift transaction data from 2010 to 2021, RMB usage in cross-border payments shows significant geographic heterogeneity. Median RMB payment share with China rose from around 0% in 2014 to 20% in 2021, while the 75th percentile reached 70%, indicating increasing adoption in specific regions, particularly Asia, Latin America, and Africa. However, usage remains low in many economies, influenced by factors such as geographic and political distance, trade linkages with China, and domestic financial development.

Role of Swap Lines and Offshore Clearing Banks

China's policies address RMB liquidity shortages abroad due to capital controls. Bilateral swap lines provide emergency liquidity, facilitating RMB settlement in trade and finance. As of 2021, 38 active swap lines support regions like Hong Kong and Africa. Offshore clearing banks, established in 25 economies, simplify RMB transactions by reducing reliance on correspondent banking, enhancing efficiency through local clearing systems aligned with time zones and legal frameworks. Both mechanisms have quantitatively boosted RMB usage.

Empirical Analysis

Regression analyses using Swift data confirm that swap lines and clearing banks significantly increase RMB payment volumes. Swap lines boost RMB payments by an average of 0.4 percentage points, while clearing banks raise it by 0.5 percentage points (cumulative effects). Geographic proximity and trade links with China correlate positively with RMB adoption, underlining the regional focus of its internationalization. Non-economic factors like political stability and financial system development also influence usage.

Conclusion

The RMB's internationalization is regionally concentrated, driven by policy interventions despite capital account barriers. While global adoption is limited, policies like swap lines and clearing banks are crucial for expansion, particularly in Asia. Continued integration could make the RMB a more significant regional currency, potentially altering the international monetary system's dynamics over the longer term.