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Summary of "Global Cross-Border Payments: A $1 Quadrillion Evolving Market?"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper analyzes the global cross-border payments market, focusing on data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift) for the period 2021–2024. It explores the characteristics, patterns, and evolving dynamics of cross-border payments, emphasizing the role of traditional and emerging financial systems, including crypto payments.

The paper estimates that the global cross-border payment market reached approximately $1 quadrillion in 2024, with traditional systems still dominating. While crypto payments have grown, they remain a small fraction of the total market, estimated at around $2.5 trillion.

Main Findings

1. Key Stylized Facts

• Financial Institution Payments Dominance: Financial institution-related payments (message type 202) constitute about 80% of total Swift cross-border payments in 2024, significantly exceeding customer-related payments (message type 103).
• Concentration in Advanced Economies (AEs): Cross-border payments are highly concentrated in AEs, with financial institution payments accounting for 80.3% of all flows within AEs and customer payments showing a similar pattern.
• Transaction Size Distribution: Large transactions (US$50 million and above) dominate payment values, representing 82.5% of financial institution payments and 60.5% of customer payments. Small transactions, however, make up a large share of the total number of payments.
• Currency Usage: The U.S. dollar (USD) remains the dominant currency in both financial institution and customer payments, with 53.4% and 55.1% shares, respectively. The euro (EUR) follows closely, while the Japanese yen (JPY) and British pound (GBP) have smaller shares. The Chinese renminbi (CNY) shows a modest but notable increase in global usage, especially in financial institution payments, where it rose by 1.5 percentage points.

2. Intermediation and Network Structure

• Intermediation Role: A significant portion of cross-border payments is intermediated through third economies. Financial institution payments are more intermediated (72.2%) than customer payments (21.3%).
• Intermediary Economies: The U.S. and Germany are the top intermediaries for both financial institution and customer payments, collectively accounting for over 50% of intermediated transactions. Financial centers like Hong Kong SAR and Switzerland are more prominent in intermediating financial institution payments.
• Network Characteristics: Cross-border payment networks are highly interconnected, with a core-periphery structure. Large AEs and financial centers play a central role, although the centrality of economies varies by currency.

3. Gravity Model Estimation

• Economic Linkages: The gravity model confirms that traditional economic linkages—such as trade, FDI, and portfolio investment—along with geographical and political factors, significantly influence cross-border payments.
• Message Type Heterogeneity: Financial institution payments are more closely associated with financial integration measures like FDI and portfolio investment, while customer payments are linked more to trade-related activities.
• Transaction Size Impact: Large-value payments are more influenced by economic fundamentals, whereas small-value payments are more affected by gravity factors like distance and language.

4. Evolution of Cross-Border Payment Networks

• Connectivity and Concentration: Cross-border payment networks have become more connected and less concentrated over the period 2021–2024.
• Geopolitical Fragmentation: Rising geopolitical fragmentation may lead to a decline in cross-border payment values, especially for large financial institution transactions.
• Currency-Specific Patterns: USD and CNY payments display distinct patterns in response to geopolitical risks and uncertainty, with USD showing increased activity in certain corridors under heightened uncertainty.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The study uses Swift data, which captures bilateral gross payment flows, and merges it with other datasets, including CEPII gravity factors, IMF trade and investment statistics, and geopolitical risk indicators.
• Scope of Analysis: The analysis includes 6,496 bilateral corridors and extends to 24,029 corridors after incorporating geopolitical alignment data.
• Implications for Policy: The paper highlights the importance of understanding the structural and heterogeneous nature of cross-border payments for policymakers, especially in the context of evolving financial systems and geopolitical dynamics.

Conclusion

The paper contributes to the literature by providing new empirical insights into the magnitude and structure of global cross-border payments. It underscores the continued dominance of USD and EUR, the growing role of CNY, and the significant impact of geopolitical factors on payment patterns. The study also emphasizes the need for more granular data to better understand the dynamics of cross-border payments in an increasingly complex financial environment.